Driving/Data: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 23:06, 31 August 2025

Fatality Risk

Distance (thousands of miles)	Fatalities per 1,000 miles
1	0.0126

Based on 2023 U.S. crash data: 1.26 fatalities per 100M miles → 0.0126 per 1,000 miles.

Injury (Serious) Risk

Distance (thousands of miles)	Serious injuries per 1,000 miles
1	0.75

Based on 2022 U.S. crash data: 75 injuries per 100M miles → 0.75 per 1,000 miles.

Time of Day (Modifier)

Time of day	Fatality risk multiplier	Injury risk multiplier
Day	1.0	1.0
Night	3.56	1.47

Seat-belt Usage (Modifier)

Seat-belt usage	Fatality risk multiplier	Injury risk multiplier
Worn (car)	1.0	1.0
Not worn (car)	1.82	2.0
Worn (SUV/van/truck)	1.0	1.0
Not worn (SUV/van/truck)	2.5	2.857

  RiskModel: Driving/Data:fatality_model
Calculation: fatalities_per_1000_miles * time_fatality_multiplier * belt_fatality_multiplier
    Content: 
Your estimated fatality risk per 1,000 miles is about {result}.

  RiskModel: Driving/Data:injury_model
Calculation: injuries_per_1000_miles * time_injury_multiplier * belt_injury_multiplier
    Content: 
Your estimated serious injury risk per 1,000 miles is about {result}.

Generated by ChatGPT-5

@@ Line 9: / Line 9: @@
 </datatable2>
-This table is based on 2023 NHTSA data: about 1.26 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the U.S., which equals 0.0126 fatalities per 1,000 miles.
+Based on 2023 U.S. crash data: 1.26 fatalities per 100M miles → 0.0126 per 1,000 miles.
-* [https://www.iihs.org/research-areas/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state IIHS: Fatality statistics]
-* [https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-2023-traffic-fatalities-2024-estimates NHTSA 2023 Traffic Fatalities Estimates]
 '''Injury (Serious) Risk'''
@@ Line 23: / Line 21: @@
 </datatable2>
-This is based on 2022 NHTSA estimates: about 75 injuries per 100 million VMT, which equals 0.75 injuries per 1,000 miles.
+Based on 2022 U.S. crash data: 75 injuries per 100M miles → 0.75 per 1,000 miles.
-* [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813560 NHTSA: Traffic Safety Facts 2022]
 '''Time of Day (Modifier)'''
-<datatable2 table="time_of_day" columns="time_period|fatality_multiplier|injury_multiplier">
+<datatable2 table="time_of_day" columns="time_period|time_fatality_multiplier|time_injury_multiplier">
 <head>
 !Time of day
@@ Line 37: / Line 34: @@
 Night|3.56|1.47
 </datatable2>
-Per-mile risk is higher at night because more crashes happen during the ~25% of miles driven in darkness. In 2022, ~53.9% of fatalities and ~32.9% of injury crashes occurred at night, leading to per-mile multipliers of ≈3.56× (fatalities) and ≈1.47× (injuries).
-* [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/810637 NHTSA: Time of day and crash involvement]
-* [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813560 NHTSA: 2022 crash statistics]
-* [https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/1007/83596.0001.001.pdf University of Michigan, Per-mile risk analysis]
 '''Seat-belt Usage (Modifier)'''
-<datatable2 table="seatbelt_use" columns="belt_status|fatality_multiplier|injury_multiplier">
+<datatable2 table="seatbelt_use" columns="belt_status|belt_fatality_multiplier|belt_injury_multiplier">
 <head>
 !Seat-belt usage
@@ Line 56: / Line 48: @@
 Not worn (SUV/van/truck)|2.5|2.857
 </datatable2>
-Multipliers reflect NHTSA/IIHS estimates:
-- In cars, seat belts cut fatality risk by ~45% (→ not wearing = 1 ÷ 0.55 ≈ 1.82×) and injury risk by ~50% (→ 2.0×).
-- In light trucks, belts cut fatality risk ~60% (→ 2.5×) and injury ~65% (→ 2.857×).
-* [https://www.iihs.org/research-areas/seat-belts IIHS: Seat belts]
-* [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/811160 NHTSA: Seat belt effectiveness]
 ----
-<RiskModel name="fatality_model" calculation="fatalities_per_1000_miles * fatality_multiplier * belt_fatality_multiplier">
+<RiskModel name="fatality_model" calculation="fatalities_per_1000_miles * time_fatality_multiplier * belt_fatality_multiplier">
 Your estimated fatality risk per 1,000 miles is about {result}.
 </RiskModel>
-<RiskModel name="injury_model" calculation="injuries_per_1000_miles * injury_multiplier * belt_injury_multiplier">
+<RiskModel name="injury_model" calculation="injuries_per_1000_miles * time_injury_multiplier * belt_injury_multiplier">
 Your estimated serious injury risk per 1,000 miles is about {result}.
 </RiskModel>
 Generated by [https://openai.com/ ChatGPT-5]