Driving/Data: Difference between revisions
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* [https://www.nhtsa.gov/ Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, NHTSA, 2022] | * [https://www.nhtsa.gov/ Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, NHTSA, 2022] | ||
<RiskModel name="crash_risk" calculation="distracted_crash_probability * speeding_odds_ratio * alcohol_odds_ratio | <RiskModel name="crash_risk" calculation="distracted_crash_probability * speeding_odds_ratio * alcohol_odds_ratio"> | ||
Your crash risk is | Your crash risk is {{One_In_X|{result}}} per year. | ||
</RiskModel> | </RiskModel> | ||
The risk model multiplies the distracted driving crash probability by the odds ratios of speeding and alcohol impairment, normalized to a percentage. This assumes independent effects of factors, which may overestimate risk if factors overlap (e.g., a driver may be both distracted and speeding). Data is sourced from NHTSA 2022 crash statistics. | The risk model multiplies the distracted driving crash probability by the odds ratios of speeding and alcohol impairment, normalized to a percentage. This assumes independent effects of factors, which may overestimate risk if factors overlap (e.g., a driver may be both distracted and speeding). Data is sourced from NHTSA 2022 crash statistics. | ||
* [https://www.nhtsa.gov/ Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, NHTSA, 2022] | * [https://www.nhtsa.gov/ Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, NHTSA, 2022] | ||
Revision as of 22:19, 28 August 2025
Distracted Driving
| Distraction Level | Distracted Crash Probability (%) | Distracted Odds Ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
None |
2.0 |
1.0 |
|
Cellphone Use |
9.5 |
1.22 |
|
Other Distraction |
11.9 |
1.53 |
The crash probabilities for cellphone use (9.5% for injury crashes) and other distractions (11.9% for injury crashes) are sourced from NHTSA 2022 data. The baseline probability (2.0%) assumes a lower risk for non-distracted driving, estimated from general crash rates. Odds ratios are derived from the relative increase in crash likelihood (e.g., 9.5%/2.0% ≈ 4.75 relative risk, adjusted to odds ratio assuming rare events).
Speeding
| Status | Speeding Crash Probability (%) | Speeding Odds Ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
Not Speeding |
2.0 |
1.0 |
|
Speeding |
12.0 |
6.0 |
Speeding crash probability (12.0% for injury crashes) is from NHTSA 2022 data. The baseline probability (2.0%) is estimated for non-speeding drivers. The odds ratio (6.0) is approximated from the relative risk (12.0%/2.0% = 6.0), assuming rare events for simplicity.
Alcohol Impairment
| BAC Level | Alcohol Crash Probability (%) | Alcohol Odds Ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
BAC < 0.08% |
2.0 |
1.0 |
|
BAC ≥ 0.08% |
31.3 |
20.5 |
Alcohol impairment crash probability (31.3% for fatal crashes) is from NHTSA 2022 data. The baseline probability (2.0%) is estimated for non-impaired drivers. The odds ratio (20.5) is derived from the relative risk (31.3%/2.0% ≈ 15.65), adjusted for odds ratio calculation.
RiskModel: Driving/Data:crash_risk
Calculation: distracted_crash_probability * speeding_odds_ratio * alcohol_odds_ratio
Content:
Your crash risk is {{One_In_X|{result}}} per year.
The risk model multiplies the distracted driving crash probability by the odds ratios of speeding and alcohol impairment, normalized to a percentage. This assumes independent effects of factors, which may overestimate risk if factors overlap (e.g., a driver may be both distracted and speeding). Data is sourced from NHTSA 2022 crash statistics.