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Grizzly Bear Attacks in the USA/Data: Difference between revisions

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'''Location'''
'''Location'''


<datatable2 table="location" columns="location|risk_probability|odds_ratio">
<datatable2 table="location" columns="location|location_risk_probability|location_odds_ratio">
<head>
<head>
!Location
!Location
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</datatable2>
</datatable2>


Risk probabilities are based on attack rates per visit or population exposure. Alaska’s rate (0.00029%) is derived from 29% of fatal attacks occurring there (). Yellowstone’s rate (0.000037%) is based on 1 in 2.7 million visits (). Glacier’s rate (0.0001%) is estimated from regional data (). Other Lower 48 states have lower rates due to fewer grizzlies (). Non-grizzly areas have zero risk. Odds ratios are scaled relative to Glacier National Park (baseline = 1.0) based on attack frequency data. [](https://dogsacademy.org/bear-attack-statistics/)[](https://www.nps.gov/articles/bearattacks.htm)[](https://dogsacademy.org/bear-attack-statistics/)
Risk probabilities are based on attack rates per visit or population exposure. Alaska’s rate (0.00029%) is derived from 29% of fatal attacks occurring there (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w). Yellowstone’s rate (0.000037%) is based on 1 in 2.7 million visits (https://www.nps.gov/articles/bearattacks.htm). Glacier’s rate (0.0001%) is estimated from regional data (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w). Other Lower 48 states have lower rates due to fewer grizzlies (https://www.nps.gov/articles/bearattacks.htm). Non-grizzly areas have zero risk. Odds ratios are scaled relative to Glacier National Park (baseline = 1.0) based on attack frequency data.
* [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w Brown bear attacks on humans: a worldwide perspective]
* [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w Brown bear attacks on humans: a worldwide perspective]
* [https://www.nps.gov/articles/bearattacks.htm Bear Attacks (U.S. National Park Service)]
* [https://www.nps.gov/articles/bearattacks.htm Bear Attacks (U.S. National Park Service)]


<RiskModel name="location_risk">Your location-based risk is about {result}%</RiskModel>
<RiskModel name="location_risk" calculation="location_risk_probability * location_odds_ratio">Your location-based risk is about {result}%</RiskModel>


'''Activity'''
'''Activity'''


<datatable2 table="activity" columns="activity|risk_probability|odds_ratio">
<datatable2 table="activity" columns="activity|activity_risk_probability|activity_odds_ratio">
<head>
<head>
!Activity
!Activity
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</datatable2>
</datatable2>


Risk probabilities are derived from a 2019 study showing 50% of attacks occur during leisure activities like hiking/camping, 24% during work-related activities, and 22% during hunting (). Hunting has a higher probability (0.00055%) due to stealth and attractants. Odds ratios are scaled relative to hiking/camping (baseline = 1.0). Probabilities are adjusted to reflect USA-specific data from 2000–2015 (183 attacks). [](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w)
Risk probabilities are derived from a 2019 study showing 50% of attacks occur during leisure activities like hiking/camping, 24% during work-related activities, and 22% during hunting (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w). Hunting has a higher probability (0.00055%) due to stealth and attractants. Odds ratios are scaled relative to hiking/camping (baseline = 1.0). Probabilities are adjusted to reflect USA-specific data from 2000–2015 (183 attacks).
* [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w Brown bear attacks on humans: a worldwide perspective]
* [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w Brown bear attacks on humans: a worldwide perspective]


<RiskModel name="activity_risk">Your activity-based risk is about {result}%</RiskModel>
<RiskModel name="activity_risk" calculation="activity_risk_probability * activity_odds_ratio">Your activity-based risk is about {result}%</RiskModel>


'''Season'''
'''Season'''


<datatable2 table="season" columns="season|risk_probability|odds_ratio">
<datatable2 table="season" columns="season|season_risk_probability|season_odds_ratio">
<head>
<head>
!Season
!Season
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</datatable2>
</datatable2>


August has the highest attack rate (0.0004%) due to peak human activity and bear foraging (). Other active months (April–October) have a lower rate (0.0002%). Hibernation season (November–March) has zero risk. Odds ratios are scaled relative to other active months (baseline = 1.0). Probabilities are estimated from North American data ().  [](https://www.eagleeyeadventures.com/blog/peak-grizzly-bear-attack-season-when-to-be-extra-cautious)[](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w)
August has the highest attack rate (0.0004%) due to peak human activity and bear foraging (https://www.eagleeyeadventures.com/post/peak-grizzly-bear-attack-season-when-to-be-extra-cautious). Other active months (April–October) have a lower
* [https://www.eagleeyeadventures.com/post/peak-grizzly-bear-attack-season-when-to-be-extra-cautious Peak Grizzly Bear Attack Season: When to Be Extra Cautious]
 
<RiskModel name="season_risk">Your season-based risk is about {result}%</RiskModel>
 
'''Precautionary Measures'''
 
<datatable2 table="precautions" columns="precautions|risk_probability|odds_ratio">
<head>
!Precautionary Measures
!Risk Probability (%)
!Odds Ratio
</head>
Bear Spray and Food Storage|0.00005|0.25
Bear Spray Only|0.0001|0.5
Food Storage Only|0.00015|0.75
No Precautions|0.0002|1.0
</datatable2>
 
Bear spray reduces attack success by 90% (), and proper food storage reduces attractant-related attacks. Combining both lowers risk significantly (0.00005%). Odds ratios are scaled relative to no precautions (baseline = 1.0). Probabilities are adjusted based on baseline risk from other tables and effectiveness data ().  [](https://www.eagleeyeadventures.com/blog/peak-grizzly-bear-attack-season-when-to-be-extra-cautious)[](https://www.nps.gov/articles/bearattacks.htm)
* [https://www.eagleeyeadventures.com/post/peak-grizzly-bear-attack-season-when-to-be-extra-cautious Peak Grizzly Bear Attack Season: When to Be Extra Cautious]
* [https://www.nps.gov/articles/bearattacks.htm Bear Attacks (U.S. National Park Service)]
 
<RiskModel name="precautions_risk">Your precaution-based risk is about {result}%</RiskModel>
 
<RiskModel name="grizzly_attack_risk" calculation="location.risk_probability * activity.odds_ratio * season.odds_ratio * precautions.odds_ratio">Your overall risk of a grizzly bear attack is about {result}%</RiskModel>

Revision as of 01:29, 30 August 2025

Location

Location Risk Probability (%) Odds Ratio

Alaska

0.00029

2.9

Yellowstone National Park

0.000037

0.37

Glacier National Park

0.0001

1.0

Other Lower 48 States

0.00005

0.5

Non-Grizzly Area

0.0

0.0

Risk probabilities are based on attack rates per visit or population exposure. Alaska’s rate (0.00029%) is derived from 29% of fatal attacks occurring there (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w). Yellowstone’s rate (0.000037%) is based on 1 in 2.7 million visits (https://www.nps.gov/articles/bearattacks.htm). Glacier’s rate (0.0001%) is estimated from regional data (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w). Other Lower 48 states have lower rates due to fewer grizzlies (https://www.nps.gov/articles/bearattacks.htm). Non-grizzly areas have zero risk. Odds ratios are scaled relative to Glacier National Park (baseline = 1.0) based on attack frequency data. 

  RiskModel: Grizzly Bear Attacks in the USA/Data:location_risk
Calculation: location_risk_probability * location_odds_ratio
    Content: Your location-based risk is about {result}%

Activity

Activity Risk Probability (%) Odds Ratio

Hiking/Camping

0.00025

1.0

Hunting

0.00055

2.2

Working Outdoors

0.0002

0.8

Other Activities

0.0001

0.4

Risk probabilities are derived from a 2019 study showing 50% of attacks occur during leisure activities like hiking/camping, 24% during work-related activities, and 22% during hunting (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w). Hunting has a higher probability (0.00055%) due to stealth and attractants. Odds ratios are scaled relative to hiking/camping (baseline = 1.0). Probabilities are adjusted to reflect USA-specific data from 2000–2015 (183 attacks). 

  RiskModel: Grizzly Bear Attacks in the USA/Data:activity_risk
Calculation: activity_risk_probability * activity_odds_ratio
    Content: Your activity-based risk is about {result}%

Season

Season Risk Probability (%) Odds Ratio

August

0.0004

2.0

Other Active Months

0.0002

1.0

Hibernation Season

0.0

0.0

August has the highest attack rate (0.0004%) due to peak human activity and bear foraging (https://www.eagleeyeadventures.com/post/peak-grizzly-bear-attack-season-when-to-be-extra-cautious). Other active months (April–October) have a lower

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