Driving/Data: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 22:54, 31 August 2025

Fatality Risk

Distance (thousands of miles)	Fatalities per 1,000 miles
1	0.0126

This table is based on 2023 NHTSA data: about 1.26 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the U.S., which equals 0.0126 fatalities per 1,000 miles.

Injury (Serious) Risk

Distance (thousands of miles)	Serious injuries per 1,000 miles
1	0.75

This is based on 2022 NHTSA estimates: about 75 injuries per 100 million VMT, which equals 0.75 injuries per 1,000 miles.

NHTSA: Traffic Safety Facts 2022

Time of Day (Modifier)

Time of day	Fatality risk multiplier	Injury risk multiplier
Day	1.0	1.0
Night	3.56	1.47

Per-mile risk is higher at night because more crashes happen during the ~25% of miles driven in darkness. In 2022, ~53.9% of fatalities and ~32.9% of injury crashes occurred at night, leading to per-mile multipliers of ≈3.56× (fatalities) and ≈1.47× (injuries).

Seat-belt Usage (Modifier)

Seat-belt usage	Fatality risk multiplier	Injury risk multiplier
Worn (car)	1.0	1.0
Not worn (car)	1.82	2.0
Worn (SUV/van/truck)	1.0	1.0
Not worn (SUV/van/truck)	2.5	2.857

Multipliers reflect NHTSA/IIHS estimates: - In cars, seat belts cut fatality risk by ~45% (→ not wearing = 1 ÷ 0.55 ≈ 1.82×) and injury risk by ~50% (→ 2.0×). - In light trucks, belts cut fatality risk ~60% (→ 2.5×) and injury ~65% (→ 2.857×).

  RiskModel: Driving/Data:fatality_model
Calculation: fatalities_per_1000_miles * fatality_multiplier * belt_fatality_multiplier
    Content: 
Your estimated fatality risk per 1,000 miles is about {result}.

  RiskModel: Driving/Data:injury_model
Calculation: injuries_per_1000_miles * injury_multiplier * belt_injury_multiplier
    Content: 
Your estimated serious injury risk per 1,000 miles is about {result}.

Generated by ChatGPT-5

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-'''Distracted Driving'''
+'''Fatality Risk'''
-<datatable2 table="distracted_driving" columns="distraction_level|distracted_crash_probability|distracted_odds_ratio">
+<datatable2 table="fatality_risk" columns="distance_thousand_miles|fatalities_per_1000_miles">
 <head>
-!Distraction Level
+!Distance (thousands of miles)
-!Distracted Crash Probability (%)
+!Fatalities per 1,000 miles
-!Distracted Odds Ratio
 </head>
-None|2.0|1.0
+|0.0126
-Cellphone Use|9.5|1.22
-Other Distraction|11.9|1.53
 </datatable2>
-The crash probabilities for cellphone use (9.5% for injury crashes) and other distractions (11.9% for injury crashes) are sourced from NHTSA 2022 data. The baseline probability (2.0%) assumes a lower risk for non-distracted driving, estimated from general crash rates. Odds ratios are derived from the relative increase in crash likelihood (e.g., 9.5%/2.0% ≈ 4.75 relative risk, adjusted to odds ratio assuming rare events).
+This table is based on 2023 NHTSA data: about 1.26 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the U.S., which equals 0.0126 fatalities per 1,000 miles.
-* [https://www.nhtsa.gov/ Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, NHTSA, 2022]
+* [https://www.iihs.org/research-areas/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state IIHS: Fatality statistics]
+* [https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-2023-traffic-fatalities-2024-estimates NHTSA 2023 Traffic Fatalities Estimates]
-'''Speeding'''
+'''Injury (Serious) Risk'''
-<datatable2 table="speeding" columns="speeding_status|speeding_crash_probability|speeding_odds_ratio">
+<datatable2 table="injury_risk" columns="distance_thousand_miles|injuries_per_1000_miles">
 <head>
-!Status
+!Distance (thousands of miles)
-!Speeding Crash Probability (%)
+!Serious injuries per 1,000 miles
-!Speeding Odds Ratio
 </head>
-Not Speeding|2.0|1.0
+|0.75
-Speeding|12.0|6.0
 </datatable2>
-Speeding crash probability (12.0% for injury crashes) is from NHTSA 2022 data. The baseline probability (2.0%) is estimated for non-speeding drivers. The odds ratio (6.0) is approximated from the relative risk (12.0%/2.0% = 6.0), assuming rare events for simplicity.
+This is based on 2022 NHTSA estimates: about 75 injuries per 100 million VMT, which equals 0.75 injuries per 1,000 miles.
-* [https://www.nhtsa.gov/ Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, NHTSA, 2022]
+* [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813560 NHTSA: Traffic Safety Facts 2022]
-'''Alcohol Impairment'''
+'''Time of Day (Modifier)'''
-<datatable2 table="alcohol_impairment" columns="bac_level|alcohol_crash_probability|alcohol_odds_ratio">
+<datatable2 table="time_of_day" columns="time_period|fatality_multiplier|injury_multiplier">
 <head>
-!BAC Level
+!Time of day
-!Alcohol Crash Probability (%)
+!Fatality risk multiplier
-!Alcohol Odds Ratio
+!Injury risk multiplier
 </head>
-BAC < 0.08%|2.0|1.0
+Day|1.0|1.0
-BAC ≥ 0.08%|31.3|20.5
+Night|3.56|1.47
 </datatable2>
-Alcohol impairment crash probability (31.3% for fatal crashes) is from NHTSA 2022 data. The baseline probability (2.0%) is estimated for non-impaired drivers. The odds ratio (20.5) is derived from the relative risk (31.3%/2.0% ≈ 15.65), adjusted for odds ratio calculation.
+Per-mile risk is higher at night because more crashes happen during the ~25% of miles driven in darkness. In 2022, ~53.9% of fatalities and ~32.9% of injury crashes occurred at night, leading to per-mile multipliers of ≈3.56× (fatalities) and ≈1.47× (injuries).
-* [https://www.nhtsa.gov/ Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, NHTSA, 2022]
+* [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/810637 NHTSA: Time of day and crash involvement]
+* [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813560 NHTSA: 2022 crash statistics]
+* [https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/1007/83596.0001.001.pdf University of Michigan, Per-mile risk analysis]
-<RiskModel name="crash_risk" calculation="(distracted_crash_probability/100) * speeding_odds_ratio * alcohol_odds_ratio">
+'''Seat-belt Usage (Modifier)'''
-Your crash risk is {{One_In_X|{result}}} per year (raw: {result}).
+<datatable2 table="seatbelt_use" columns="belt_status|fatality_multiplier|injury_multiplier">
+<head>
+!Seat-belt usage
+!Fatality risk multiplier
+!Injury risk multiplier
+</head>
+Worn (car)|1.0|1.0
+Not worn (car)|1.82|2.0
+Worn (SUV/van/truck)|1.0|1.0
+Not worn (SUV/van/truck)|2.5|2.857
+</datatable2>
+Multipliers reflect NHTSA/IIHS estimates:
+- In cars, seat belts cut fatality risk by ~45% (→ not wearing = 1 ÷ 0.55 ≈ 1.82×) and injury risk by ~50% (→ 2.0×).
+- In light trucks, belts cut fatality risk ~60% (→ 2.5×) and injury ~65% (→ 2.857×).
+* [https://www.iihs.org/research-areas/seat-belts IIHS: Seat belts]
+* [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/811160 NHTSA: Seat belt effectiveness]
+----
+<RiskModel name="fatality_model" calculation="fatalities_per_1000_miles * fatality_multiplier * belt_fatality_multiplier">
+Your estimated fatality risk per 1,000 miles is about {result}.
+</RiskModel>
+<RiskModel name="injury_model" calculation="injuries_per_1000_miles * injury_multiplier * belt_injury_multiplier">
+Your estimated serious injury risk per 1,000 miles is about {result}.
 </RiskModel>
-The risk model multiplies the distracted driving crash probability by the odds ratios of speeding and alcohol impairment, normalized to a percentage. This assumes independent effects of factors, which may overestimate risk if factors overlap (e.g., a driver may be both distracted and speeding). Data is sourced from NHTSA 2022 crash statistics.
+Generated by [https://openai.com/ ChatGPT-5]
-* [https://www.nhtsa.gov/ Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool, NHTSA, 2022]