Driving/Data: Difference between revisions
I had to poke chatgpt to get correct baseline risk... |
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''' | '''Baseline rates (verbatim; used directly in models)''' | ||
<datatable2 table="distance_options" columns="distance_label|distance_miles | The following U.S. national rates are taken verbatim from authoritative sources and are **not** converted here. Conversions to per-miles exposure are performed only inside the <RiskModel> calculations below. | ||
* Fatalities: **1.26 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT)** in 2023 (national estimate). | |||
* [https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-2023-traffic-fatalities-2024-estimates NHTSA 2023 Traffic Fatalities Estimates] | |||
* [https://www.iihs.org/research-areas/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state IIHS: Fatality statistics] | |||
* Injuries: **75 injuries per 100 million VMT** in 2022 (police-reported injuries, national estimate). | |||
* [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813560 NHTSA: Traffic Safety Facts 2022] | |||
'''Distance Options''' | |||
<datatable2 table="distance_options" columns="distance_label|distance_miles"> | |||
<head> | <head> | ||
!Distance choice | !Distance choice | ||
!Miles | !Miles | ||
</head> | </head> | ||
100 miles|100 | 100 miles|100 | ||
1,000 miles|1000 | 1,000 miles|1000 | ||
100,000 miles|100000 | 100,000 miles|100000 | ||
</datatable2> | </datatable2> | ||
These rows provide user-friendly exposure choices. The RiskModels convert the per-100M-VMT base rates into expected counts for the chosen miles. | |||
'''Time of Day ( | '''Time of Day (modifier)''' | ||
<datatable2 table="time_of_day" columns="time_period|time_fatality_multiplier|time_injury_multiplier"> | <datatable2 table="time_of_day" columns="time_period|time_fatality_multiplier|time_injury_multiplier"> | ||
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</datatable2> | </datatable2> | ||
Per-mile risk is higher at night: in 2022, ~53.9% of fatalities and ~32.9% of injury crashes occurred | Per-mile risk is higher at night: in 2022, ~53.9% of fatalities and ~32.9% of injury crashes occurred during roughly ~25% of VMT (nighttime). Using exposure-adjusted ratios yields ≈3.56× (fatalities) and ≈1.47× (injuries). | ||
* [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813560 NHTSA | * Night/day crash distribution and injuries: [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813560 NHTSA 2022] | ||
* [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/810637 NHTSA | * Background on time-of-day involvement: [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/810637 NHTSA] | ||
* Exposure assumption | * Exposure assumption (≈25% of VMT at night): [https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/roadway_dept/night_visib/lighting_handbook/chap_3/chap3_2.cfm FHWA Lighting Guidance] | ||
* Supplemental analysis: [https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/1007/83596.0001.001.pdf University of Michigan per-mile risk] | |||
'''Seat-belt Usage ( | '''Seat-belt Usage (modifier)''' | ||
<datatable2 table="seatbelt_use" columns="belt_status|belt_fatality_multiplier|belt_injury_multiplier"> | <datatable2 table="seatbelt_use" columns="belt_status|belt_fatality_multiplier|belt_injury_multiplier"> | ||
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</datatable2> | </datatable2> | ||
Seat belts reduce fatal injury risk by ~45% in cars and ~60% in light trucks; moderate-to-critical injury by ~50% in cars and ~65% in light trucks. | Seat belts reduce fatal injury risk by ~45% in cars and ~60% in light trucks; moderate-to-critical injury by ~50% in cars and ~65% in light trucks. The multipliers above are the inverse of those reductions (i.e., increased risk when not wearing a belt). | ||
* [https://www.iihs.org/research-areas/seat-belts IIHS: Seat belts] | * Effectiveness summary: [https://www.iihs.org/research-areas/seat-belts IIHS: Seat belts] | ||
* [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/811160 NHTSA: Seat belt effectiveness] | * Technical background: [https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/811160 NHTSA: Seat belt effectiveness] | ||
---- | ---- | ||
<RiskModel name="fatality_model" calculation=" | <RiskModel name="fatality_model" calculation="(1.26 / 100000000 * distance_miles) * time_fatality_multiplier * belt_fatality_multiplier"> | ||
Your estimated | Your estimated number of fatalities is {{One_In_X|{result}}}. | ||
</RiskModel> | </RiskModel> | ||
<RiskModel name="injury_model" calculation=" | <RiskModel name="injury_model" calculation="(75 / 100000000 * distance_miles) * time_injury_multiplier * belt_injury_multiplier"> | ||
Your estimated | Your estimated number of injuries {{One_In_X|{result}}}. | ||
</RiskModel> | </RiskModel> | ||
---- | ---- | ||
''Note on uncertainty'': These | ''Note on uncertainty'': These are national averages and approximate modifiers. Actual risks vary by state, roadway type (urban/rural), weather, vehicle, driver demographics, and year-to-year changes. Modifiers are population-level and not individual predictions. | ||
Generated by [https://openai.com/ | Generated by [https://openai.com/ GPT-5 Thinking] | ||
Revision as of 00:10, 1 September 2025
Baseline rates (verbatim; used directly in models)
The following U.S. national rates are taken verbatim from authoritative sources and are **not** converted here. Conversions to per-miles exposure are performed only inside the riskmodel: missing name attribute
RiskModel: Driving/Data:injury_model
Calculation: (75 / 100000000 * distance_miles) * time_injury_multiplier * belt_injury_multiplier
Content:
Your estimated number of injuries {{One_In_X|{result}}}.
Note on uncertainty: These are national averages and approximate modifiers. Actual risks vary by state, roadway type (urban/rural), weather, vehicle, driver demographics, and year-to-year changes. Modifiers are population-level and not individual predictions.
Generated by GPT-5 Thinking