Driving: Difference between revisions
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Driving is common in the U.S., but it carries real risks of fatality and serious injury. | Driving is common in the U.S., but it carries real risks of fatality and serious injury. | ||
This calculator estimates your | This calculator estimates your risk for a chosen distance and conditions. | ||
=== Your Inputs === | === Your Inputs === | ||
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Choose your driving conditions below: | Choose your driving conditions below: | ||
Select your distance | Select your distance (this sets how much exposure you have): | ||
<DropDown title="Distance Driven" table="distance_options"></DropDown> | <DropDown title="Distance Driven" table="distance_options"></DropDown> | ||
Driving at night increases risk because more crashes happen in fewer miles: | Driving at night increases risk because more crashes happen in fewer miles: | ||
<DropDown title="Time of Day" table="time_of_day"></DropDown> | <DropDown title="Time of Day" table="time_of_day"></DropDown> | ||
Wearing a seat belt greatly reduces the risk of death or serious injury: | Wearing a seat belt greatly reduces the risk of death or serious injury: | ||
<DropDown title="Seat-belt Usage" table="seatbelt_use"></DropDown> | <DropDown title="Seat-belt Usage" table="seatbelt_use"></DropDown> | ||
=== Your Results === | === Your Results === | ||
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<RiskDisplay model="fatality_model"></RiskDisplay> | <RiskDisplay model="fatality_model"></RiskDisplay> | ||
<RiskDisplay model="injury_model"></RiskDisplay> | <RiskDisplay model="injury_model"></RiskDisplay> | ||
'' | |||
''Calculation note'': Each model first computes the expected number of events λ from the verbatim base rates (per 100 million vehicle miles traveled), scaled by distance and modifiers. It then converts λ into a probability of at least one event using the Poisson formula \(p = 1 - e^{-λ}\). Because <RiskModel> only supports numeric constants and math operators, the constant *e* is approximated as 2.718281828 and exponentiation is written with the `^` operator. | |||
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Generated by [https://openai.com/ ChatGPT-5] | Generated by [https://openai.com/ ChatGPT-5] | ||
Revision as of 00:57, 1 September 2025
Driving in the United States Risk Calculator
Driving is common in the U.S., but it carries real risks of fatality and serious injury. This calculator estimates your risk for a chosen distance and conditions.
Your Inputs
Choose your driving conditions below:
Select your distance (this sets how much exposure you have): [{"distance_label":"100 miles","distance_miles":"100"},{"distance_label":"1,000 miles","distance_miles":"1000"},{"distance_label":"100,000 miles","distance_miles":"100000"}]
Driving at night increases risk because more crashes happen in fewer miles: [{"time_period":"Day","time_fatality_multiplier":"1.0","time_injury_multiplier":"1.0"},{"time_period":"Night","time_fatality_multiplier":"3.56","time_injury_multiplier":"1.47"}]
Wearing a seat belt greatly reduces the risk of death or serious injury: [{"belt_status":"Worn (car)","belt_fatality_multiplier":"1.0","belt_injury_multiplier":"1.0"},{"belt_status":"Not worn (car)","belt_fatality_multiplier":"1.82","belt_injury_multiplier":"2.0"},{"belt_status":"Worn (SUV\/van\/truck)","belt_fatality_multiplier":"1.0","belt_injury_multiplier":"1.0"},{"belt_status":"Not worn (SUV\/van\/truck)","belt_fatality_multiplier":"2.5","belt_injury_multiplier":"2.857"}]
Your Results
Your estimated chance of being in a fatal crash is {{One_in_X:{result}}}.
Your estimated chance of being injured in a crash is {{One_in_X:{result}}}.
Calculation note: Each model first computes the expected number of events λ from the verbatim base rates (per 100 million vehicle miles traveled), scaled by distance and modifiers. It then converts λ into a probability of at least one event using the Poisson formula \(p = 1 - e^{-λ}\). Because <RiskModel> only supports numeric constants and math operators, the constant *e* is approximated as 2.718281828 and exponentiation is written with the `^` operator.
Generated by ChatGPT-5