Grizzly Bear Attacks in the USA/Data
Location
| Location | Risk Probability (%) | Odds Ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
Alaska |
0.00029 |
2.9 |
|
Yellowstone National Park |
0.000037 |
0.37 |
|
Glacier National Park |
0.0001 |
1.0 |
|
Other Lower 48 States |
0.00005 |
0.5 |
|
Non-Grizzly Area |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Risk probabilities are based on attack rates per visit or population exposure. Alaska’s rate (0.00029%) is derived from 29% of fatal attacks occurring there (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w). Yellowstone’s rate (0.000037%) is based on 1 in 2.7 million visits (https://www.nps.gov/articles/bearattacks.htm). Glacier’s rate (0.0001%) is estimated from regional data (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w). Other Lower 48 states have lower rates due to fewer grizzlies (https://www.nps.gov/articles/bearattacks.htm). Non-grizzly areas have zero risk. Odds ratios are scaled relative to Glacier National Park (baseline = 1.0) based on attack frequency data.
RiskModel: Grizzly Bear Attacks in the USA/Data:location_risk
Calculation: location_risk_probability * location_odds_ratio
Content: Your location-based risk is about {result}%
Activity
| Activity | Risk Probability (%) | Odds Ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
Hiking/Camping |
0.00025 |
1.0 |
|
Hunting |
0.00055 |
2.2 |
|
Working Outdoors |
0.0002 |
0.8 |
|
Other Activities |
0.0001 |
0.4 |
Risk probabilities are derived from a 2019 study showing 50% of attacks occur during leisure activities like hiking/camping, 24% during work-related activities, and 22% during hunting (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-44341-w). Hunting has a higher probability (0.00055%) due to stealth and attractants. Odds ratios are scaled relative to hiking/camping (baseline = 1.0). Probabilities are adjusted to reflect USA-specific data from 2000–2015 (183 attacks).
RiskModel: Grizzly Bear Attacks in the USA/Data:activity_risk
Calculation: activity_risk_probability * activity_odds_ratio
Content: Your activity-based risk is about {result}%
Season
| Season | Risk Probability (%) | Odds Ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
August |
0.0004 |
2.0 |
|
Other Active Months |
0.0002 |
1.0 |
|
Hibernation Season |
0.0 |
0.0 |
August has the highest attack rate (0.0004%) due to peak human activity and bear foraging (https://www.eagleeyeadventures.com/post/peak-grizzly-bear-attack-season-when-to-be-extra-cautious). Other active months (April–October) have a lower