Black Bear Attacks in the USA/Data
Location
| Location | Risk Probability (%) | Odds Ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
Alaska |
0.00015 |
3.0 |
|
Appalachian Trail States |
0.00007 |
1.4 |
|
Other Bear-Populated States |
0.00005 |
1.0 |
|
Non-Bear Area |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Risk probabilities are based on attack rates per visit or population exposure. Alaska’s rate (0.00015%) reflects its high black bear population and 3.5 times more fatal attacks than the lower 48 states (). Appalachian Trail states (0.00007%) have higher risks due to documented attacks (). Other bear-populated states (0.00005%) serve as the baseline. Non-bear areas have zero risk. Odds ratios are scaled relative to Other Bear-Populated States (baseline = 1.0) based on attack frequency ().
- Fatal Black Bear Attacks in North America Over the Last 20 Years
- Bear Attacks (U.S. National Park Service)
RiskModel: Black Bear Attacks in the USA/Data:location_risk
Calculation: location_risk_probability * location_odds_ratio
Content: Your location-based risk is about {result}%
Activity
| Activity | Risk Probability (%) | Odds Ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
Hiking/Camping with Dog |
0.0002 |
2.0 |
|
Hiking/Camping without Dog |
0.0001 |
1.0 |
|
Other Outdoor Activities |
0.00008 |
0.8 |
|
Indoor Activities |
0.00002 |
0.2 |
Risk probabilities are derived from a study showing over 50% of 92 black bear attacks involved unleashed dogs (). Hiking/camping with a dog (0.0002%) has a higher risk due to dogs provoking bears. Hiking/camping without a dog (0.0001%) is the baseline. Other outdoor activities (0.00008%) and indoor activities (0.00002%) have lower risks. Odds ratios are scaled relative to hiking/camping without a dog (baseline = 1.0).
RiskModel: Black Bear Attacks in the USA/Data:activity_risk
Calculation: activity_risk_probability * activity_odds_ratio
Content: Your activity-based risk is about {result}%
Season
| Season | Risk Probability (%) | Odds Ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
August |
0.00015 |
2.0 |
|
Other Active Months |
0.000075 |
1.0 |
|
Hibernation Season |
0.0 |
0.0 |
August has the highest attack rate (0.00015%) due to peak human activity and bear foraging (). Other active months (April–October, excluding August) have a lower rate (0.000075%). Hibernation season (November–March) has zero risk. Odds ratios are scaled relative to other active months (baseline = 1.0). Probabilities are estimated from North American data ().
RiskModel: Black Bear Attacks in the USA/Data:season_risk
Calculation: season_risk_probability * season_odds_ratio
Content: Your season-based risk is about {result}%
Precautionary Measures
| Precautionary Measures | Risk Probability (%) | Odds Ratio |
|---|---|---|
|
Bear Spray and Food Storage |
0.000025 |
0.25 |
|
Bear Spray Only |
0.00005 |
0.5 |
|
Food Storage Only |
0.000075 |
0.75 |
|
No Precautions |
0.0001 |
1.0 |
Bear spray reduces attack success by 90% (), and proper food storage reduces attractant-related attacks (). Combining both lowers risk significantly (0.000025%). Odds ratios are scaled relative to no precautions (baseline = 1.0). Probabilities are adjusted based on baseline risk from other tables and effectiveness data.
RiskModel: Black Bear Attacks in the USA/Data:precautions_risk
Calculation: precautions_risk_probability * precautions_odds_ratio
Content: Your precaution-based risk is about {result}%
RiskModel: Black Bear Attacks in the USA/Data:black_bear_attack_risk
Calculation: location_risk_probability * activity_odds_ratio * season_odds_ratio * precautions_odds_ratio
Content: Your overall risk of a black bear attack is about {result}%