Driving/Data
Distance & Baseline Rates
| Distance choice | Miles | Thousands of miles (multiplier) | Baseline fatalities per 1,000 miles | Baseline serious injuries per 1,000 miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
100 miles |
100 |
0.1 |
0.0000126 |
0.00075 |
|
1,000 miles |
1000 |
1 |
0.0000126 |
0.00075 |
|
100,000 miles |
100000 |
100 |
0.0000126 |
0.00075 |
Baseline fatality rate (2023): **1.26 deaths per 100 million VMT** → **0.0126 per 1,000 miles**. Baseline injury rate (2022): **75 injuries per 100 million VMT** → **0.75 per 1,000 miles**.
- NHTSA 2023 Traffic Fatalities Estimates
- IIHS: Fatality statistics (rates per VMT)
- NHTSA: Traffic Safety Facts 2022 (injury rates)
Time of Day (Modifier)
| Time of day | Fatality risk multiplier | Injury risk multiplier |
|---|---|---|
|
Day |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|
Night |
3.56 |
1.47 |
Per-mile risk is higher at night: in 2022, ~53.9% of fatalities and ~32.9% of injury crashes occurred in night hours while ~25% of VMT occurs at night, yielding ≈3.56× (fatalities) and ≈1.47× (injuries).
- NHTSA: 2022 crash statistics
- NHTSA: Time of day & crash involvement
- Exposure assumption: ~25% of VMT at night (FHWA Lighting Guidance)
Seat-belt Usage (Modifier)
| Seat-belt usage | Fatality risk multiplier | Injury risk multiplier |
|---|---|---|
|
Worn (car) |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|
Not worn (car) |
1.82 |
2.0 |
|
Worn (SUV/van/truck) |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|
Not worn (SUV/van/truck) |
2.5 |
2.857 |
Seat belts reduce fatal injury risk by ~45% in cars and ~60% in light trucks; moderate-to-critical injury by ~50% in cars and ~65% in light trucks. Multipliers above are the inverse of those reductions.
RiskModel: Driving/Data:fatality_model
Calculation: base_fatalities_per_1000_miles * distance_thousand_miles * time_fatality_multiplier * belt_fatality_multiplier
Content:
Your estimated fatality risk for {distance_label} is about {result}.
RiskModel: Driving/Data:injury_model
Calculation: base_injuries_per_1000_miles * distance_thousand_miles * time_injury_multiplier * belt_injury_multiplier
Content:
Your estimated serious injury risk for {distance_label} is about {result}.
Note on uncertainty: These values are national averages and should be seen as approximate indicators. Actual risks vary by roadway type (urban/rural), vehicle, weather, geography, and year. Multipliers are population-level and may not predict individual outcomes.
Generated by ChatGPT-5