Driving
Driving in the United States Risk Calculator
Driving is common in the U.S., but it carries real risks of fatality and serious injury. This calculator estimates your risk for a chosen distance and conditions.
Your Inputs
Choose your driving conditions below:
Select your distance (this sets how much exposure you have): [{"distance_label":"100 miles","distance_miles":"100"},{"distance_label":"1,000 miles","distance_miles":"1000"},{"distance_label":"100,000 miles","distance_miles":"100000"}]
Driving at night increases risk because more crashes happen in fewer miles: [{"time_period":"Day","time_fatality_multiplier":"1.0","time_injury_multiplier":"1.0"},{"time_period":"Night","time_fatality_multiplier":"3.56","time_injury_multiplier":"1.47"}]
Wearing a seat belt greatly reduces the risk of death or serious injury: [{"belt_status":"Worn (car)","belt_fatality_multiplier":"1.0","belt_injury_multiplier":"1.0"},{"belt_status":"Not worn (car)","belt_fatality_multiplier":"1.82","belt_injury_multiplier":"2.0"},{"belt_status":"Worn (SUV\/van\/truck)","belt_fatality_multiplier":"1.0","belt_injury_multiplier":"1.0"},{"belt_status":"Not worn (SUV\/van\/truck)","belt_fatality_multiplier":"2.5","belt_injury_multiplier":"2.857"}]
Your Results
Your estimated chance of being in a fatal crash is {{One_in_X:{result}}}.
Your estimated chance of being injured in a crash is {{One_in_X:{result}}}.
Calculation note: Each model first computes the expected number of events λ from the verbatim base rates (per 100 million vehicle miles traveled), scaled by distance and modifiers. It then converts λ into a probability of at least one event using the Poisson formula \(p = 1 - e^{-λ}\). Because <RiskModel> only supports numeric constants and math operators, the constant *e* is approximated as 2.718281828 and exponentiation is written with the `^` operator.
Generated by ChatGPT-5