Chances of Getting Pregnant After Sex/Data
Per-day conception probabilities (verbatim)
| Days before or on ovulation (day 0) | Probability of conception per act (verbatim) |
|---|---|
|
5 |
0.10 |
|
4 |
0.17 |
|
3 |
0.24 |
|
2 |
0.30 |
|
1 |
0.33 |
|
0 |
0.33 |
Copied verbatim from:
- Wilcox AJ, Weinberg CR, Baird DD. "Timing of sexual intercourse in relation to ovulation: Effects on the probability of conception, survival of the pregnancy, and sex of the baby." New England Journal of Medicine. 1995;333(23):1517–1521. Link
Friendly timing options (verbatim-based selections)
| When did sex happen? | Chance of getting pregnant (per act) |
|---|---|
|
Not sure (timing unknown) |
0.031 |
|
A few days before ovulation (1–2 days before) |
0.30 |
|
Day of ovulation |
0.33 |
|
Earlier in the fertile window (3–5 days before) |
0.24 |
Notes and references:
- **“Not sure (timing unknown) = 0.031 per act**:** Wilcox AJ et al. (2001) estimated the probability of pregnancy from a single **random** act of unprotected intercourse at **3.1%**. This serves as a population-average when timing is unknown. * Wilcox AJ, Dunson D, Weinberg CR, Trussell J, Baird DD. "Likelihood of conception with a single act of intercourse: providing benchmark rates for assessment of post-coital contraceptives." Contraception. 2001;63(4):211–215. PubMed
- **“A few days before ovulation (1–2 days before) = 0.30”** and **“Day of ovulation = 0.33”** are **verbatim** from Wilcox 1995 for days −2 and 0. :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}
- **“Earlier in the fertile window (3–5 days before) = 0.24”** uses the **verbatim** day −3 figure (0.24) from Wilcox 1995 as a representative value for earlier fertile-window timing (days −3 to −5 are 0.24, 0.17, 0.10 respectively). We select 0.24 to avoid under- or over-stating risk while keeping numbers copied from the source. Reviewers can see all day-specific values above.
RiskModel: Chances of Getting Pregnant After Sex/Data:conception_model
Calculation: per_act_probability_friendly / 1
Content:
The chance of getting pregnant is {{One_In_X|{result}}}.
Calculation note: The friendly options reference **verbatim** probabilities from the cited studies (either a specific day from Wilcox 1995 or the “random-timing” average of **0.031** from Wilcox 2001). No averaging is performed inside the tables; the RiskModel simply uses the selected per-act probability as-is.
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