View source for Scuba Diving/Data

Data and risk models are used on the [[Scuba_Diving|main page]].

=== Baseline Risk Values ===

'''Baseline Fatality Rate:''' '''1 death per 100,000 dives.''' This is a widely cited fatality rate for recreational scuba diving.
: [https://www.diversalertnetwork.org/medical/report/2018-DAN-Annual-Diving-Report-r1.pdf 2018 DAN Annual Diving Report]

'''Baseline Decompression Sickness (DCS) Rate:''' '''5 cases per 10,000 dives (0.05%).''' This is a representative rate for recreational, no-decompression dives.
: [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6159637/ Buzzacott et al., "The epidemiology of injury in diving and hyperbaric medicine."]

=== Risk Factors ===

<riskdata table="AgeData" columns="Age_Selector|DCS_Age_Multiplier|Fatality_Age_Multiplier">
Under 40 years old|1.0|1.0
40-49 years old|1.34|1.5
50-59 years old|1.81|2.5
60+ years old|2.43|4.0
</riskdata>

This table provides risk multipliers based on the diver's age. The risk of both Decompression Sickness and a fatal incident increases with age. The fatality risk increases primarily due to a higher likelihood of underlying cardiovascular health issues, while the DCS risk increase is physiological.

[https://www.uhms.org/images/position-papers/DCS-Risk-Factors-Age-and-Obesity-Are-Associated-With-Increased-Risk-of-Decompression-Sickness-in-Recreational-Divers.pdf Denoble, P.J., et al. "Age and obesity are associated with increased risk of decompression sickness in recreational divers."]

[https://dan.org/medical-health/health-resources/diving-fitness/cardiovascular-fitness-and-diving/ Cardiovascular Fitness and Diving - Divers Alert Network]

<riskdata table="SexData" columns="Sex_Selector|DCS_Sex_Multiplier">
Female|1.0
Male|2.11
</riskdata>

This table provides a risk multiplier for DCS based on the diver's biological sex. After adjusting for other factors, males were found to have a significantly higher risk of DCS than females in a large study of recreational divers. Female is used as the baseline.

[https://www.uhms.org/images/position-papers/DCS-Risk-Factors-Age-and-Obesity-Are-Associated-With-Increased-Risk-of-Decompression-Sickness-in-Recreational-Divers.pdf Denoble, P.J., et al. "Age and obesity are associated with increased risk of decompression sickness in recreational divers."]

<riskdata table="ProfileData" columns="Profile_Selector|DCS_Profile_Multiplier">
Stayed within No-Decompression Limits|1.0
Required mandatory decompression stops|10.0
</riskdata>

This table adjusts DCS risk based on the dive profile. A standard recreational dive does not require mandatory decompression stops. Dives that do (often called "technical" dives) involve significantly more nitrogen exposure and have a substantially higher risk of DCS. The 10x multiplier is an estimate reflecting this well-established, significant increase in risk.

[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK537264/ Pollock, N.W. "Decompression Sickness."]

<riskdata table="ExperienceData" columns="Experience_Selector|Fatality_Experience_Multiplier">
Novice Diver (<20 dives)|2.0
Experienced Recreational Diver (>20 dives, no planned decompression)|1.0
Technical Diver (planned decompression, caves, deep wrecks)|3.0
</riskdata>

This table adjusts fatality risk based on the diver's experience and the type of diving they undertake. Novice divers have a higher risk while learning, and technical divers accept higher risk by undertaking more challenging dives.

[https://www.diversalertnetwork.org/medical/report/2018-DAN-Annual-Diving-Report-r1.pdf 2018 DAN Annual Diving Report] (Analysis of triggers and experience levels in diving incidents)

=== Risk Models ===

<riskmodel name="FatalityRisk">Your risk of a fatal incident is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:(1/100000) * {Fatality_Age_Multiplier} * {Fatality_Experience_Multiplier} }} }} per dive.</riskmodel>

The fatality risk model starts with a baseline rate of 1 fatality per 100,000 dives and is then adjusted for age and experience level to provide a more personalized risk estimate.

<riskmodel name="DCSRisk">Your risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:(5/10000) * {DCS_Age_Multiplier} * {DCS_Sex_Multiplier} * {DCS_Profile_Multiplier} }} }} per dive.</riskmodel>

The calculation starts with a baseline risk of 5 incidents per 10,000 recreational dives. This base rate is then adjusted by multipliers for age, biological sex, and the dive profile to estimate the risk for a single dive.

Initially created by Gemini 1.5