Scuba Diving/Data
Data and risk models are used on the main page.
Baseline Risk Values
Baseline Fatality Rate: 1 death per 100,000 dives. Estimated recreational-scuba fatality rates vary by dataset and method; a reasonable summary range is roughly 0.5–2 deaths per 100,000 dives in many published analyses. Estimates vary outside that range depending on country and reporting system (see DAN annual reports and review literature).
Baseline Decompression Sickness (DCS) Rate: 3.4 cases per 10,000 dives (0.034%). This is a representative rate for recreational, no-decompression dives.
Risk Factors
| Age_Selector | DCS_Age_Multiplier | Fatality_Age_Multiplier |
|---|---|---|
|
Under 40 years old |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|
40-49 years old |
1.34 |
1.5 |
|
50-59 years old |
1.81 |
2.5 |
|
60+ years old |
2.43 |
4.0 |
This table provides risk multipliers based on the diver's age. The risk of both Decompression Sickness and a fatal incident increases with age. The fatality risk increases primarily due to a higher likelihood of underlying cardiovascular health issues, while the DCS risk increase is physiological.
Smerz "Age associated risks of recreational scuba diving"
DAN "Annual Diving Report 2021 Edition: A report on 2019 diving fatalities, injuries, and incidents"
| Profile_Selector | DCS_Profile_Multiplier |
|---|---|
|
Stayed within No-Decompression Limits |
1.0 |
|
Required mandatory decompression stops |
10.0 |
This table adjusts DCS risk based on the dive profile. A standard recreational dive does not require mandatory decompression stops and stays within the "no-decompression" limits. Dives that go farther (often called "technical" dives, and often include most commercial dives) involve significantly more nitrogen exposure and have a substantially higher risk of DCS. The 10x multiplier is an estimate reflecting this well-established, significant increase in risk.
StatPearls "Decompression Sickness"
| Experience_Selector | Fatality_Experience_Multiplier |
|---|---|
|
Novice Diver (<20 dives) |
2.0 |
|
Experienced Recreational Diver (>20 dives, no planned decompression) |
1.0 |
|
Technical Diver (planned decompression, caves, deep wrecks) |
3.0 |
This table adjusts fatality risk based on the diver's experience and the type of diving they undertake. Novice divers have a higher risk while learning, and technical divers accept higher risk by undertaking more challenging dives.
DAN "Annual Diving Report 2017 Edition: A report on 2015 diving fatalities, injuries, and incidents"
Risk Models
RiskModel: Scuba Diving/Data:FatalityRisk
Sorted Parameters:
p_fatality = {{#expr:(1/100000) * {Fatality_Age_Multiplier} * {Fatality_Experience_Multiplier} }}
Content: Your risk of a fatal incident is {{One_In_X|{p_fatality}}} per dive.
The fatality risk model starts with a baseline rate of 1 fatality per 100,000 dives and is then adjusted for age and experience level to provide a more personalized risk estimate.
RiskModel: Scuba Diving/Data:DCSRisk
Content: Your risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:(3.4/10000) * {DCS_Age_Multiplier} * {DCS_Profile_Multiplier} }} }} per dive.
The calculation starts with a baseline risk of 3.4 incidents per 10,000 recreational dives. This base rate is then adjusted by multipliers for age, biological sex, and the dive profile to estimate the risk for a single dive.