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Risk of Never Taking HRT / Data
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= Data for RiskOfNeverTakingHRTForMenopause =


# RiskofNeverTakingHRT/Data
== Fracture Risk Data ==
<riskdata table="FractureRiskTable" columns="label|withHRT|withoutHRT">
<head>
! Scenario (for dropdown)
! Fractures with HRT (per 1000)
! Fractures without HRT (per 1000)
</head>
7.1 years – estrogen‑only HRT | 92–113 | 141
5.6 years – combined HRT      | 79–96  | 111
</riskdata>


This page contains the data and calculations for the risks associated with not taking hormone replacement therapy (HRT) during menopause. Data is sourced from peer-reviewed studies and authoritative organizations, with calculations performed using RiskModel formulas.
*Explanation:* 
Women on HRT had fewer fractures than those not taking it—for both estrogen-only and combined regimens. 
- Source: [PubMed – WHI WHR Study](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28093732/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)


## Age Risk Factors
<RiskModel name="FractureRiskModel" calculation="withoutHRT - withHRT">
label = label
withHRT = withHRT
withoutHRT = withoutHRT
</RiskModel>


<datatable2 name="AgeRiskFactors">
== Cardiovascular, Stroke, and VTE Risk Data ==
<riskdata table="CardiovascularRiskTable" columns="condition|withHRT|withoutHRT">
<head>
<head>
AgeRange|AgeFractureRiskPer10000|AgeVasomotorSymptomRiskPer100|AgeCardiovascularRiskPer10000
! Condition (for dropdown)
Age Range|Fracture Risk (per 10,000 person-years)|Vasomotor Symptom Risk (per 100 women)|Cardiovascular Risk (per 10,000 person-years)
! Incidence with HRT (per 10,000)
! Incidence without HRT (per 10,000)
</head>
</head>
50-59|1413|80|239
Coronary heart disease        | 157 | 132
60-69|1800|60|300
Stroke                          | 44  | 32
70+|2200|40|400
Venous thromboembolism (VTE)  | 34  | 16
</datatable2>
</riskdata>
 
*Explanation:* 
Combined HRT is associated with slightly higher incidence of CHD, stroke, and VTE. 
- Source: [CMAJ WHI Summary](https://www.cmaj.ca/content/170/10/1535?utm_source=chatgpt.com)


### Explanation
<RiskModel name="CHDRiskModel" calculation="withHRT - withoutHRT">
This table provides baseline risks for osteoporotic fractures, vasomotor symptoms, and cardiovascular disease by age group for women not taking HRT. Fracture and cardiovascular risks are reported per 10,000 person-years, while vasomotor symptom risk is per 100 women, reflecting prevalence. Data is sourced from the US Preventive Services Task Force and Women’s Health Initiative studies.
condition = 'Coronary heart disease'
withHRT = withHRT
withoutHRT = withoutHRT
</RiskModel>


- References:
<RiskModel name="StrokeRiskModel" calculation="withHRT - withoutHRT">
  - Gartlehner et al., JAMA, 2022.
condition = 'Stroke'
  - Women’s Health Initiative studies, 2017.
withHRT = withHRT
withoutHRT = withoutHRT
</RiskModel>


## Menopausal Status Factors
<RiskModel name="VTERiskModel" calculation="withHRT - withoutHRT">
condition = 'Venous thromboembolism (VTE)'
withHRT = withHRT
withoutHRT = withoutHRT
</RiskModel>


<datatable2 name="MenopausalStatusFactors">
== Cancer Risk Data ==
<riskdata table="CancerRiskTable" columns="cancerType|withHRT|withoutHRT">
<head>
<head>
Status|StatusFractureRiskMultiplier|StatusVasomotorSymptomMultiplier|StatusCardiovascularRiskMultiplier
! Cancer Type (for dropdown)
Menopausal Status|Fracture Risk Multiplier|Vasomotor Symptom Multiplier|Cardiovascular Risk Multiplier
! Incidence with HRT (per women-years)
! Baseline without HRT
</head>
</head>
Premenopausal|0.5|0.2|0.8
Breast Cancer (combined HRT) | +9 to +36 per 10,000 | baseline varies
Perimenopausal|0.8|1.5|0.9
Ovarian Cancer              | ~1 per 1,000        | baseline varies
Postmenopausal|1.0|1.0|1.0
Endometrial Cancer (combined HRT) | reduced/neutral | baseline varies
</datatable2>
</riskdata>


### Explanation
*Explanation:* 
This table shows how menopausal status modifies baseline risks. Premenopausal women have lower risks due to higher natural hormone levels, while perimenopausal women may experience heightened vasomotor symptoms due to hormonal fluctuations. Postmenopausal women are the baseline (multiplier = 1.0). Data is based on clinical trial findings and observational studies.
Combined HRT may increase breast and ovarian cancer risk, but appears neutral or protective for endometrial cancer.
- Sources: 
  - [Menopause.org.au Breast Cancer](https://www.menopause.org.au/members/ims-menopause-live/use-of-hormone-replacement-therapy-hrt-and-risk-of-breast-cancer?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
  - [SAGE Journal Analysis](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053369120957514?utm_source=chatgpt.com)


- References:
<RiskModel name="BreastCancerRiskModel" calculation="withHRT">
  - Barrett-Connor & Stuenkel, International Journal of Epidemiology, 2001.
cancerType = 'Breast Cancer (combined HRT)'
  - Zhang et al., PLOS Medicine, 2021.
withHRT = withHRT
</RiskModel>


## Exposure Duration
<RiskModel name="OvarianCancerRiskModel" calculation="withHRT">
cancerType = 'Ovarian Cancer'
withHRT = withHRT
</RiskModel>


<datatable2 name="ExposureDuration">
== Dementia Risk Data ==
<riskdata table="DementiaRiskTable" columns="scenario|withHRT|withoutHRT">
<head>
<head>
Duration|DurationYears
! Scenario (for dropdown)
Exposure Duration|Duration (Years)
! Dementia incidence with HRT (per 1000)
! Dementia incidence without HRT (per 1000)
</head>
</head>
1 year|1
Women ≥65, combined HRT | 11 | 9
10 years|10
</riskdata>
100 years|100
</datatable2>
 
### Explanation
This table defines exposure durations for calculating cumulative risk. Options include 1, 10, and 100 years to allow users to estimate risks over different timeframes. These are standard options for risk modeling, with 100 years as a theoretical maximum for lifetime exposure.
 
- References:
  - Standard risk modeling practice, RiskiPedia guidelines.


## Risk Models
*Explanation:* 
 
In women aged 65+, combined HRT is tied to slightly higher dementia risk. 
<RiskModel name="FractureRiskModel" base="AgeRiskFactors.AgeFractureRiskPer10000" unit="probability" calculation="probability" description="Estimated probability of osteoporotic fracture due to not taking HRT">
- Source: [WHI Memory Study – PubMed](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28093732/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
Risk = AgeRiskFactors.AgeFractureRiskPer10000 * ExposureDuration.DurationYears * MenopausalStatusFactors.StatusFractureRiskMultiplier / 10000
</RiskModel>
 
<RiskModel name="VasomotorSymptomRiskModel" base="AgeRiskFactors.AgeVasomotorSymptomRiskPer100" unit="probability" calculation="probability" description="Estimated probability of severe vasomotor symptoms without HRT">
Risk = AgeRiskFactors.AgeVasomotorSymptomRiskPer100 * MenopausalStatusFactors.StatusVasomotorSymptomMultiplier / 100
</RiskModel>


<RiskModel name="CardiovascularRiskModel" base="AgeRiskFactors.AgeCardiovascularRiskPer10000" unit="probability" calculation="probability" description="Estimated probability of cardiovascular disease due to not taking HRT">
<RiskModel name="DementiaRiskModel" calculation="withHRT - withoutHRT">
Risk = AgeRiskFactors.AgeCardiovascularRiskPer10000 * ExposureDuration.DurationYears * MenopausalStatusFactors.StatusCardiovascularRiskMultiplier / 10000
scenario = 'Women ≥65, combined HRT'
withHRT = withHRT
withoutHRT = withoutHRT
</RiskModel>
</RiskModel>


## Uncertainty Note
== Uncertainty Note ==
Risks presented are averages based on population data and may vary by subgroup, geography, or individual circumstances (e.g., lifestyle, genetics). Consult a healthcare provider for personalized advice.
These figures represent population averages and may not apply to every individual due to variables like geography, age at menopause, HRT type, and personal health.


Generated by Grok, created by xAI
Generated by an AI assistant.

Latest revision as of 17:34, 12 September 2025

Data for RiskOfNeverTakingHRTForMenopause

Fracture Risk Data

Scenario (for dropdown) Fractures with HRT (per 1000) Fractures without HRT (per 1000)

7.1 years – estrogen‑only HRT 

92–113 

141

5.6 years – combined HRT 

79–96  

111
  • Explanation:*

Women on HRT had fewer fractures than those not taking it—for both estrogen-only and combined regimens. - Source: [PubMed – WHI WHR Study](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28093732/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) 

  RiskModel: RiskofNeverTakingHRT/Data:FractureRiskModel
    Content: 
label = label
withHRT = withHRT
withoutHRT = withoutHRT

Cardiovascular, Stroke, and VTE Risk Data

Condition (for dropdown) Incidence with HRT (per 10,000) Incidence without HRT (per 10,000)

Coronary heart disease 

157 

132

Stroke 

44  

32

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) 

34  

16
  • Explanation:*

Combined HRT is associated with slightly higher incidence of CHD, stroke, and VTE. - Source: [CMAJ WHI Summary](https://www.cmaj.ca/content/170/10/1535?utm_source=chatgpt.com) 

  RiskModel: RiskofNeverTakingHRT/Data:CHDRiskModel
    Content: 
condition = 'Coronary heart disease'
withHRT = withHRT
withoutHRT = withoutHRT


  RiskModel: RiskofNeverTakingHRT/Data:StrokeRiskModel
    Content: 
condition = 'Stroke'
withHRT = withHRT
withoutHRT = withoutHRT


  RiskModel: RiskofNeverTakingHRT/Data:VTERiskModel
    Content: 
condition = 'Venous thromboembolism (VTE)'
withHRT = withHRT
withoutHRT = withoutHRT

Cancer Risk Data

Cancer Type (for dropdown) Incidence with HRT (per women-years) Baseline without HRT

Breast Cancer (combined HRT) 

+9 to +36 per 10,000 

baseline varies

Ovarian Cancer 

~1 per 1,000         

baseline varies

Endometrial Cancer (combined HRT) 

reduced/neutral 

baseline varies
  • Explanation:*

Combined HRT may increase breast and ovarian cancer risk, but appears neutral or protective for endometrial cancer. - Sources: 

 - [Menopause.org.au Breast Cancer](https://www.menopause.org.au/members/ims-menopause-live/use-of-hormone-replacement-therapy-hrt-and-risk-of-breast-cancer?utm_source=chatgpt.com)  
 - [SAGE Journal Analysis](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053369120957514?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

  RiskModel: RiskofNeverTakingHRT/Data:BreastCancerRiskModel
    Content: 
cancerType = 'Breast Cancer (combined HRT)'
withHRT = withHRT


  RiskModel: RiskofNeverTakingHRT/Data:OvarianCancerRiskModel
    Content: 
cancerType = 'Ovarian Cancer'
withHRT = withHRT

Dementia Risk Data

Scenario (for dropdown) Dementia incidence with HRT (per 1000) Dementia incidence without HRT (per 1000)

Women ≥65, combined HRT 

11 

9
  • Explanation:*

In women aged 65+, combined HRT is tied to slightly higher dementia risk. - Source: [WHI Memory Study – PubMed](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28093732/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) 

  RiskModel: RiskofNeverTakingHRT/Data:DementiaRiskModel
    Content: 
scenario = 'Women ≥65, combined HRT'
withHRT = withHRT
withoutHRT = withoutHRT

Uncertainty Note

These figures represent population averages and may not apply to every individual due to variables like geography, age at menopause, HRT type, and personal health.

Generated by an AI assistant.

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