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Scuba Diving/Data: Difference between revisions

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<riskdata table="Fatality" columns="RatePerMillionDives">1.8</riskdata>
Data and risk models are used on the [[Scuba_Diving|main page]].
This table provides the fatality rate per million recreational dives from a peer-reviewed study on epidemiology of morbidity and mortality in US and Canadian recreational scuba diving. The timeframe is per dive.
* Reference: [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29306625/ Buzzacott P, Schiller D, Crain J, Denoble PJ. Epidemiology of morbidity and mortality in US and Canadian recreational scuba diving. Public Health. 2018 Feb;155:62-68.]


<riskdata table="SeriousInjury" columns="RatePer100000Dives">38.3</riskdata>
=== Baseline Risk Values ===
This table provides the estimated rate of serious injuries (emergency department presentations for scuba injuries) per 100,000 dives, derived verbatim from the ratio of deaths to ED presentations in the source (calculation handled in model). The timeframe is per dive.
* Reference: [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29306625/ Buzzacott P, Schiller D, Crain J, Denoble PJ. Epidemiology of morbidity and mortality in US and Canadian recreational scuba diving. Public Health. 2018 Feb;155:62-68.]


<riskdata table="DCS" columns="RatePer100000Dives">5.72</riskdata>
'''Baseline Fatality Rate:''' '''1 death per 100,000 dives.''' This is a widely cited fatality rate for recreational scuba diving.
This table provides the treated decompression sickness rate per 100,000 dives from a Divers Alert Network report. The timeframe is per dive.
: [https://www.diversalertnetwork.org/medical/report/2018-DAN-Annual-Diving-Report-r1.pdf 2018 DAN Annual Diving Report]
* Reference: [https://activesafe.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Scuba.pdf Vann RD, Butler FK, Mitchell SJ, Moon RE. Decompression illness. Lancet. 2011 Jan 8;377(9760):153-64.]


<riskdata table="Experience" columns="ExperienceLevel|FatalityMult|InjuryMult|DCSMult">Less than 20 dives|5|5|5\nMore than 20 dives|1|1|1</riskdata>
'''Baseline Decompression Sickness (DCS) Rate:''' '''5 cases per 10,000 dives (0.05%).''' This is a representative rate for recreational, no-decompression dives.
This table provides estimated multipliers for risks based on diver experience, derived from the proportion of fatalities (~50%) among novices and an estimated 10% of dives by novices, yielding a relative risk of 5 times for novices. Applied to all risks. The timeframe is per dive.
: [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6159637/ Buzzacott et al., "The epidemiology of injury in diving and hyperbaric medicine."]
* Reference: [https://divermag.com/fatalities-inexperience-a-big-factor/ DIVER magazine on fatalities and inexperience]
* Reference: [https://dan.org/alert-diver/article/the-effect-of-experience-on-risk/ DAN on the effect of experience on risk]


<riskdata table="Gender" columns="Gender|FatalityMult|InjuryMult|DCSMult">Male|2.8|2.8|2.6\nFemale|1|1|1</riskdata>
=== Risk Factors ===
This table provides multipliers for risks based on gender, with men at 2.8 times the fatality and injury risk of women, and 2.6 times for DCS. The timeframe is per dive.
* Reference: [https://dan.org/alert-diver/article/womens-health-in-diving/ DAN on women's health in diving, citing Denoble PJ et al. Diving and Hyperb Med. 2008;38(4):182-188.]
* Reference: [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12182213/ St Leger Dowse M et al. Comparative data from 2250 male and female sports divers: diving patterns and decompression sickness. Aviat Space Environ Med. 2002 Aug;73(8):743-9.]


<riskmodel name="Fatality" calculation="(RatePerMillionDives / 1000000) * Experience.FatalityMult * Gender.FatalityMult">Your fatality risk is about {{One_In_X|{result}}} per dive.</riskmodel>
<riskdata table="AgeData" columns="Age_Selector|DCS_Age_Multiplier|Fatality_Age_Multiplier">
<riskmodel name="Serious Injury" calculation="(RatePer100000Dives / 100000) * Experience.InjuryMult * Gender.InjuryMult">Your serious injury risk is about {{One_In_X|{result}}} per dive.</riskmodel>
Under 40 years old|1.0|1.0
<riskmodel name="DCS" calculation="(RatePer100000Dives / 100000) * Experience.DCSMult * Gender.DCSMult">Your decompression sickness risk is about {{One_In_X|{result}}} per dive.</riskmodel>
40-49 years old|1.34|1.5
50-59 years old|1.81|2.5
60+ years old|2.43|4.0
</riskdata>


Data and risk models are used on the [[Scuba Diving|main page]].
This table provides risk multipliers based on the diver's age. The risk of both Decompression Sickness and a fatal incident increases with age. The fatality risk increases primarily due to a higher likelihood of underlying cardiovascular health issues, while the DCS risk increase is physiological.


Initially created by Grok 4.
[https://www.uhms.org/images/position-papers/DCS-Risk-Factors-Age-and-Obesity-Are-Associated-With-Increased-Risk-of-Decompression-Sickness-in-Recreational-Divers.pdf Denoble, P.J., et al. "Age and obesity are associated with increased risk of decompression sickness in recreational divers."]
 
[https://dan.org/medical-health/health-resources/diving-fitness/cardiovascular-fitness-and-diving/ Cardiovascular Fitness and Diving - Divers Alert Network]
 
<riskdata table="SexData" columns="Sex_Selector|DCS_Sex_Multiplier">
Female|1.0
Male|2.11
</riskdata>
 
This table provides a risk multiplier for DCS based on the diver's biological sex. After adjusting for other factors, males were found to have a significantly higher risk of DCS than females in a large study of recreational divers. Female is used as the baseline.
 
[https://www.uhms.org/images/position-papers/DCS-Risk-Factors-Age-and-Obesity-Are-Associated-With-Increased-Risk-of-Decompression-Sickness-in-Recreational-Divers.pdf Denoble, P.J., et al. "Age and obesity are associated with increased risk of decompression sickness in recreational divers."]
 
<riskdata table="ProfileData" columns="Profile_Selector|DCS_Profile_Multiplier">
Stayed within No-Decompression Limits|1.0
Required mandatory decompression stops|10.0
</riskdata>
 
This table adjusts DCS risk based on the dive profile. A standard recreational dive does not require mandatory decompression stops. Dives that do (often called "technical" dives) involve significantly more nitrogen exposure and have a substantially higher risk of DCS. The 10x multiplier is an estimate reflecting this well-established, significant increase in risk.
 
[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK537264/ Pollock, N.W. "Decompression Sickness."]
 
<riskdata table="ExperienceData" columns="Experience_Selector|Fatality_Experience_Multiplier">
Novice Diver (<20 dives)|2.0
Experienced Recreational Diver (>20 dives, no planned decompression)|1.0
Technical Diver (planned decompression, caves, deep wrecks)|3.0
</riskdata>
 
This table adjusts fatality risk based on the diver's experience and the type of diving they undertake. Novice divers have a higher risk while learning, and technical divers accept higher risk by undertaking more challenging dives.
 
[https://www.diversalertnetwork.org/medical/report/2018-DAN-Annual-Diving-Report-r1.pdf 2018 DAN Annual Diving Report] (Analysis of triggers and experience levels in diving incidents)
 
=== Risk Models ===
 
<riskmodel name="FatalityRisk">Your risk of a fatal incident is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:(1/100000) * {Fatality_Age_Multiplier} * {Fatality_Experience_Multiplier} }} }} per dive.</riskmodel>
 
The fatality risk model starts with a baseline rate of 1 fatality per 100,000 dives and is then adjusted for age and experience level to provide a more personalized risk estimate.
 
<riskmodel name="DCSRisk">Your risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:(5/10000) * {DCS_Age_Multiplier} * {DCS_Sex_Multiplier} * {DCS_Profile_Multiplier} }} }} per dive.</riskmodel>
 
The calculation starts with a baseline risk of 5 incidents per 10,000 recreational dives. This base rate is then adjusted by multipliers for age, biological sex, and the dive profile to estimate the risk for a single dive.
 
Initially created by Gemini 1.5

Latest revision as of 22:05, 17 September 2025

Data and risk models are used on the main page.

Baseline Risk Values

Baseline Fatality Rate: 1 death per 100,000 dives. This is a widely cited fatality rate for recreational scuba diving.

2018 DAN Annual Diving Report

Baseline Decompression Sickness (DCS) Rate: 5 cases per 10,000 dives (0.05%). This is a representative rate for recreational, no-decompression dives.

Buzzacott et al., "The epidemiology of injury in diving and hyperbaric medicine."

Risk Factors

Age_Selector DCS_Age_Multiplier Fatality_Age_Multiplier

Under 40 years old

1.0

1.0

40-49 years old

1.34

1.5

50-59 years old

1.81

2.5

60+ years old

2.43

4.0

This table provides risk multipliers based on the diver's age. The risk of both Decompression Sickness and a fatal incident increases with age. The fatality risk increases primarily due to a higher likelihood of underlying cardiovascular health issues, while the DCS risk increase is physiological.

Denoble, P.J., et al. "Age and obesity are associated with increased risk of decompression sickness in recreational divers."

Cardiovascular Fitness and Diving - Divers Alert Network

Sex_Selector DCS_Sex_Multiplier

Female

1.0

Male

2.11

This table provides a risk multiplier for DCS based on the diver's biological sex. After adjusting for other factors, males were found to have a significantly higher risk of DCS than females in a large study of recreational divers. Female is used as the baseline.

Denoble, P.J., et al. "Age and obesity are associated with increased risk of decompression sickness in recreational divers."

Profile_Selector DCS_Profile_Multiplier

Stayed within No-Decompression Limits

1.0

Required mandatory decompression stops

10.0

This table adjusts DCS risk based on the dive profile. A standard recreational dive does not require mandatory decompression stops. Dives that do (often called "technical" dives) involve significantly more nitrogen exposure and have a substantially higher risk of DCS. The 10x multiplier is an estimate reflecting this well-established, significant increase in risk.

Pollock, N.W. "Decompression Sickness."

Experience_Selector Fatality_Experience_Multiplier

Novice Diver (<20 dives)

2.0

Experienced Recreational Diver (>20 dives, no planned decompression)

1.0

Technical Diver (planned decompression, caves, deep wrecks)

3.0

This table adjusts fatality risk based on the diver's experience and the type of diving they undertake. Novice divers have a higher risk while learning, and technical divers accept higher risk by undertaking more challenging dives.

2018 DAN Annual Diving Report (Analysis of triggers and experience levels in diving incidents)

Risk Models

  RiskModel: Scuba Diving/Data:FatalityRisk
    Content: Your risk of a fatal incident is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:(1/100000) * {Fatality_Age_Multiplier} * {Fatality_Experience_Multiplier} }} }} per dive.

The fatality risk model starts with a baseline rate of 1 fatality per 100,000 dives and is then adjusted for age and experience level to provide a more personalized risk estimate. 

  RiskModel: Scuba Diving/Data:DCSRisk
    Content: Your risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:(5/10000) * {DCS_Age_Multiplier} * {DCS_Sex_Multiplier} * {DCS_Profile_Multiplier} }} }} per dive.

The calculation starts with a baseline risk of 5 incidents per 10,000 recreational dives. This base rate is then adjusted by multipliers for age, biological sex, and the dive profile to estimate the risk for a single dive.

Initially created by Gemini 1.5

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