Scuba Diving/Data

Data and risk models are used on the main page.

Baseline Risk Values

Baseline Fatality Rate: 1 death per 100,000 dives. This is a widely cited fatality rate for recreational scuba diving.

2018 DAN Annual Diving Report

Baseline Decompression Sickness (DCS) Rate: 5 cases per 10,000 dives (0.05%). This is a representative rate for recreational, no-decompression dives.

Buzzacott et al., "The epidemiology of injury in diving and hyperbaric medicine."

Risk Factors

Age_Selector	DCS_Age_Multiplier	Fatality_Age_Multiplier
Under 40 years old	1.0	1.0
40-49 years old	1.34	1.5
50-59 years old	1.81	2.5
60+ years old	2.43	4.0

This table provides risk multipliers based on the diver's age. The risk of both Decompression Sickness and a fatal incident increases with age. The fatality risk increases primarily due to a higher likelihood of underlying cardiovascular health issues, while the DCS risk increase is physiological.

Denoble, P.J., et al. "Age and obesity are associated with increased risk of decompression sickness in recreational divers."

Cardiovascular Fitness and Diving - Divers Alert Network

Sex_Selector	DCS_Sex_Multiplier
Female	1.0
Male	2.11

This table provides a risk multiplier for DCS based on the diver's biological sex. After adjusting for other factors, males were found to have a significantly higher risk of DCS than females in a large study of recreational divers. Female is used as the baseline.

Denoble, P.J., et al. "Age and obesity are associated with increased risk of decompression sickness in recreational divers."

Profile_Selector	DCS_Profile_Multiplier
Stayed within No-Decompression Limits	1.0
Required mandatory decompression stops	10.0

This table adjusts DCS risk based on the dive profile. A standard recreational dive does not require mandatory decompression stops. Dives that do (often called "technical" dives) involve significantly more nitrogen exposure and have a substantially higher risk of DCS. The 10x multiplier is an estimate reflecting this well-established, significant increase in risk.

Pollock, N.W. "Decompression Sickness."

Experience_Selector	Fatality_Experience_Multiplier
Novice Diver (<20 dives)	2.0
Experienced Recreational Diver (>20 dives, no planned decompression)	1.0
Technical Diver (planned decompression, caves, deep wrecks)	3.0

This table adjusts fatality risk based on the diver's experience and the type of diving they undertake. Novice divers have a higher risk while learning, and technical divers accept higher risk by undertaking more challenging dives.

2018 DAN Annual Diving Report (Analysis of triggers and experience levels in diving incidents)

Risk Models

  RiskModel: Scuba Diving/Data:FatalityRisk
    Content: Your risk of a fatal incident is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:(1/100000) * {Fatality_Age_Multiplier} * {Fatality_Experience_Multiplier} }} }} per dive.

The fatality risk model starts with a baseline rate of 1 fatality per 100,000 dives and is then adjusted for age and experience level to provide a more personalized risk estimate.

  RiskModel: Scuba Diving/Data:DCSRisk
    Content: Your risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:(5/10000) * {DCS_Age_Multiplier} * {DCS_Sex_Multiplier} * {DCS_Profile_Multiplier} }} }} per dive.

The calculation starts with a baseline risk of 5 incidents per 10,000 recreational dives. This base rate is then adjusted by multipliers for age, biological sex, and the dive profile to estimate the risk for a single dive.

Initially created by Gemini 1.5