Scuba Diving/Data: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 18:03, 13 September 2025

Data and risk models are used on the main page.

Baseline Risk Values

Baseline Fatality Rate: 1.8 deaths per 100,000 DAN members per year. This value represents the average annual risk for an active diver who is a DAN member.

2018 DAN Annual Diving Report

Baseline Decompression Sickness (DCS) Rate: 5 cases per 10,000 dives (0.05%). This is a representative rate for recreational, no-decompression dives.

Buzzacott et al., "The epidemiology of injury in diving and hyperbaric medicine."

Risk Factors

Age_Selector	DCS_Age_Multiplier
Under 40 years old	1.0
40-49 years old	1.34
50-59 years old	1.81
60+ years old	2.43

This table provides a risk multiplier for Decompression Sickness based on the diver's age. The risk of DCS increases steadily with age. The baseline is a diver under 40. The multipliers are derived from an odds ratio where the odds of DCS increase by 3% for each year of age.

Denoble, P.J., et al. "Age and obesity are associated with increased risk of decompression sickness in recreational divers."

Sex_Selector	DCS_Sex_Multiplier
Female	1.0
Male	2.11

This table provides a risk multiplier for DCS based on the diver's biological sex. After adjusting for other factors, males were found to have a significantly higher risk of DCS than females in a large study of recreational divers. Female is used as the baseline.

Denoble, P.J., et al. "Age and obesity are associated with increased risk of decompression sickness in recreational divers."

Profile_Selector	DCS_Profile_Multiplier
Stayed within No-Decompression Limits	1.0
Required mandatory decompression stops	10.0

This table adjusts DCS risk based on the dive profile. A standard recreational dive does not require mandatory decompression stops. Dives that do (often called "technical" dives) involve significantly more nitrogen exposure and have a substantially higher risk of DCS. The 10x multiplier is an estimate reflecting this well-established, significant increase in risk.

Pollock, N.W. "Decompression Sickness."

Risk Models

  RiskModel: Scuba Diving/Data:FatalityRisk
    Content: Your annual risk of a fatal incident is {{One_In_X|{result}}} per year.

The fatality risk model is based on the annual fatality rate observed among Divers Alert Network (DAN) members, which represents an active and safety-conscious diving population. This model does not include interactive factors and reflects an average risk over a year of diving.

  RiskModel: Scuba Diving/Data:DCSRisk
    Content: Your risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) is {{One_In_X|{result}}} per dive.

The calculation starts with a baseline risk of 5 incidents per 10,000 recreational dives. This base rate is then adjusted by multipliers for age, biological sex, and the dive profile to estimate the risk for a single dive.

Initially created by Gemini 1.5.

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-<riskdata table="FatalityRates" columns="AgeGroup|Sex|RatePer100000">
+Data and risk models are used on the [[Scuba_Diving|main page]].
--19|Male|7
--19|Female|0
+=== Baseline Risk Values ===
--29|Male|10
--29|Female|0
+'''Baseline Fatality Rate:''' '''1.8 deaths per 100,000 DAN members per year.''' This value represents the average annual risk for an active diver who is a DAN member.
--39|Male|11
+* [https://www.google.com/search?q=https://www.diversalertnetwork.org/medical/report/2018-DAN-Annual-Diving-Report-r1.pdf 2018 DAN Annual Diving Report]
--39|Female|2
--49|Male|22
+'''Baseline Decompression Sickness (DCS) Rate:''' '''5 cases per 10,000 dives (0.05%).''' This is a representative rate for recreational, no-decompression dives.
--49|Female|7
+* [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6159637/ Buzzacott et al., "The epidemiology of injury in diving and hyperbaric medicine."]
--59|Male|30
--59|Female|16
+=== Risk Factors ===
-+|Male|33
-+|Female|29
+<riskdata table="AgeData" columns="Age_Selector|DCS_Age_Multiplier">
+Under 40 years old|1.0
+-49 years old|1.34
+-59 years old|1.81
++ years old|2.43
 </riskdata>
-This table provides fatality rates per 100,000 DAN-insured divers per year, broken down by age group and sex. The timeframe is annual, assuming active diving participation among insured members (typically more committed divers). Note that rates of 0 indicate no fatalities recorded in the study sample for that group, but actual risk may be small rather than zero.
-* Denoble PJ, Pollock NW, Vaithiyanathan P, Caruso JL, Dovenbarger JA, Vann RD. Scuba injury death rate among insured DAN members. Diving Hyperb Med. 2008 Dec;38(4):182-8. PMID: 22692749. https://www.dhmjournal.com/images/IndividArticles/38Dec/Denoble_dhm.38.4.182-188.pdf
-<riskdata table="ExposureLevels" columns="ExposureLabel|NumberOfYears">
+This table provides a risk multiplier for Decompression Sickness based on the diver's age. The risk of DCS increases steadily with age. The baseline is a diver under 40. The multipliers are derived from an odds ratio where the odds of DCS increase by 3% for each year of age.
-year|1
-years|10
+[https://www.google.com/search?q=https://www.uhms.org/images/position-papers/DCS-Risk-Factors-Age-and-Obesity-Are-Associated-With-Increased-Risk-of-Decompression-Sickness-in-Recreational-Divers.pdf Denoble, P.J., et al. "Age and obesity are associated with increased risk of decompression sickness in recreational divers."]
-years|50
+<riskdata table="SexData" columns="Sex_Selector|DCS_Sex_Multiplier">
+Female|1.0
+Male|2.11
 </riskdata>
-This table provides options for exposure periods to approximate cumulative risk over multiple years (using linear approximation suitable for small probabilities). No specific source, as it is for user selection.
-<riskmodel name="FatalityRisk" calculation="RatePer100000 / 100000 * NumberOfYears">Your scuba diving fatality risk is about {{One_In_X|{result}}} over the selected exposure period.</riskmodel>
+This table provides a risk multiplier for DCS based on the diver's biological sex. After adjusting for other factors, males were found to have a significantly higher risk of DCS than females in a large study of recreational divers. Female is used as the baseline.
+[https://www.google.com/search?q=https://www.uhms.org/images/position-papers/DCS-Risk-Factors-Age-and-Obesity-Are-Associated-With-Increased-Risk-of-Decompression-Sickness-in-Recreational-Divers.pdf Denoble, P.J., et al. "Age and obesity are associated with increased risk of decompression sickness in recreational divers."]
+<riskdata table="ProfileData" columns="Profile_Selector|DCS_Profile_Multiplier">
+Stayed within No-Decompression Limits|1.0
+Required mandatory decompression stops|10.0
+</riskdata>
+This table adjusts DCS risk based on the dive profile. A standard recreational dive does not require mandatory decompression stops. Dives that do (often called "technical" dives) involve significantly more nitrogen exposure and have a substantially higher risk of DCS. The 10x multiplier is an estimate reflecting this well-established, significant increase in risk.
+[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK537264/ Pollock, N.W. "Decompression Sickness."]
+=== Risk Models ===
+<riskmodel name="FatalityRisk" calculation="1.8/100000">Your annual risk of a fatal incident is {{One_In_X|{result}}} per year.</riskmodel>
+The fatality risk model is based on the annual fatality rate observed among Divers Alert Network (DAN) members, which represents an active and safety-conscious diving population. This model does not include interactive factors and reflects an average risk over a year of diving.
+<riskmodel name="DCSRisk" calculation="(5/10000) * DCS_Age_Multiplier * DCS_Sex_Multiplier * DCS_Profile_Multiplier">Your risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) is {{One_In_X|{result}}} per dive.</riskmodel>
+The calculation starts with a baseline risk of 5 incidents per 10,000 recreational dives. This base rate is then adjusted by multipliers for age, biological sex, and the dive profile to estimate the risk for a single dive.
-Initially created by Grok 4.
+Initially created by Gemini 1.5.
-Data and risk models are used on the [[Scuba Diving|main page]].