Scuba Diving/Data
Data and risk models are used on the main page.
Baseline Risk Values
Baseline Fatality Rate: 1 death per 100,000 dives. This is a widely cited fatality rate for recreational scuba diving.
Baseline Decompression Sickness (DCS) Rate: 5 cases per 10,000 dives (0.05%). This is a representative rate for recreational, no-decompression dives.
Risk Factors
| Age_Selector | DCS_Age_Multiplier | Fatality_Age_Multiplier |
|---|---|---|
|
Under 40 years old |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|
40-49 years old |
1.34 |
1.5 |
|
50-59 years old |
1.81 |
2.5 |
|
60+ years old |
2.43 |
4.0 |
This table provides risk multipliers based on the diver's age. The risk of both Decompression Sickness and a fatal incident increases with age. The fatality risk increases primarily due to a higher likelihood of underlying cardiovascular health issues, while the DCS risk increase is physiological.
Cardiovascular Fitness and Diving - Divers Alert Network
| Sex_Selector | DCS_Sex_Multiplier |
|---|---|
|
Female |
1.0 |
|
Male |
2.11 |
This table provides a risk multiplier for DCS based on the diver's biological sex. After adjusting for other factors, males were found to have a significantly higher risk of DCS than females in a large study of recreational divers. Female is used as the baseline.
| Profile_Selector | DCS_Profile_Multiplier |
|---|---|
|
Stayed within No-Decompression Limits |
1.0 |
|
Required mandatory decompression stops |
10.0 |
This table adjusts DCS risk based on the dive profile. A standard recreational dive does not require mandatory decompression stops. Dives that do (often called "technical" dives) involve significantly more nitrogen exposure and have a substantially higher risk of DCS. The 10x multiplier is an estimate reflecting this well-established, significant increase in risk.
Pollock, N.W. "Decompression Sickness."
| Experience_Selector | Fatality_Experience_Multiplier |
|---|---|
|
Novice Diver (<20 dives) |
2.0 |
|
Experienced Recreational Diver (>20 dives, no planned decompression) |
1.0 |
|
Technical Diver (planned decompression, caves, deep wrecks) |
3.0 |
This table adjusts fatality risk based on the diver's experience and the type of diving they undertake. Novice divers have a higher risk while learning, and technical divers accept higher risk by undertaking more challenging dives.
2018 DAN Annual Diving Report (Analysis of triggers and experience levels in diving incidents)
Risk Models
RiskModel: Scuba Diving/Data:FatalityRisk
Content: Your risk of a fatal incident is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:(1/100000) * {Fatality_Age_Multiplier} * {Fatality_Experience_Multiplier} }} }} per dive.
The fatality risk model starts with a baseline rate of 1 fatality per 100,000 dives and is then adjusted for age and experience level to provide a more personalized risk estimate.
RiskModel: Scuba Diving/Data:DCSRisk
Content: Your risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:(5/10000) * {DCS_Age_Multiplier} * {DCS_Sex_Multiplier} * {DCS_Profile_Multiplier} }} }} per dive.
The calculation starts with a baseline risk of 5 incidents per 10,000 recreational dives. This base rate is then adjusted by multipliers for age, biological sex, and the dive profile to estimate the risk for a single dive.
Initially created by Gemini 1.5