'High' Risk: Weed/Data
This subpage contains the data and risk models for the main 'High' Risk: Weed page. The data is synthesized from major public health reports and peer-reviewed studies to provide risk estimates based on user choices.
Baseline Factors
Method of Consumption
| Method_Description | Method_IsSmoked | Method_IsVaped | Method_IsEdible |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Smoking (joint, pipe, bong) |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
Vaping (flower or oil) |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
Edibles (gummies, baked goods, drinks) |
0 |
0 |
1 |
This choice determines which risks are relevant. For example, respiratory risks apply to smoking and vaping but not edibles.
Frequency of Consumption
| Frequency_Description | Frequency_CUD_Multiplier | Frequency_Psychosis_Multiplier | Bronchitis_Smoking_OR | Bronchitis_Vaping_OR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rarely (a few times per year) |
1 |
1 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|
Occasionally (1-3 times per month) |
2 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
|
Regularly (1-3 times per week) |
4 |
2 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
|
Daily or Near-Daily |
5.5 |
5 |
3.5 |
1.7 |
This data provides multipliers for long-term risks based on frequency of use. Daily use dramatically increases risk for Cannabis Use Disorder (CUD), psychosis, and chronic bronchitis symptoms. The odds ratio (OR) for bronchitis from vaping is significant but substantially lower than for smoking.
- Adverse Health Effects of Marijuana Use | New England Journal of Medicine (CUD Risk)
- The contribution of cannabis use to variation in the incidence of psychotic disorder across Europe | The Lancet Psychiatry (Psychosis Risk)
- Effects of Marijuana Smoking on the Lung | Annals of the American Thoracic Society (Bronchitis Risk - Smoking)
- Association Between E-Cigarette Use and Chronic Respiratory Disease | American Journal of Preventive Medicine (Bronchitis Risk - Vaping vs. Smoking)
Your Age
| Age_Description | Age_CUD_Multiplier | Age_Cognition_Impact |
|---|---|---|
|
Under 18 |
4 |
High |
|
18-25 |
1.5 |
Moderate |
|
26+ |
1 |
Low |
This data provides a risk multiplier based on age, primarily for CUD and long-term cognitive effects. The adolescent brain (<18) is significantly more vulnerable to the effects of THC.
Typical Potency
| Potency_Description | Potency_Psychosis_Multiplier |
|---|---|
|
Standard Potency (Traditional flower, ~10-15% THC) |
1 |
|
High Potency (Concentrates, "dabs," most vapes, >20% THC) |
3 |
This data provides a risk multiplier for acute psychosis based on the potency of the product consumed. High-potency products are linked to a significantly higher risk of triggering psychotic symptoms.
Edible Dose (if applicable)
| EdibleDose_Description | EdibleDose_AcuteRisk_Multiplier |
|---|---|
|
Low Dose (2.5mg - 5mg THC) |
1 |
|
Standard Dose (10mg THC) |
3 |
|
High Dose (25mg+ THC) |
10 |
This data provides a risk multiplier for acute, short-term negative outcomes (e.g., severe panic attack, paranoia, ER visit) when consuming edibles. Risk increases dramatically with dose.
- Cardiorespiratory and Other Health Effects of Marijuana Use: A Scientific Review for the Colorado General Assembly (See p. 55-57 for acute effects by dose)
Risk Models
Short-Term Risk: Impaired Driving
RiskModel: 'High' Risk: Weed/Data:DrivingRisk
Content:
When driving under the influence of cannabis, your risk of a motor vehicle crash is approximately '''doubled'''.
Calculation: This is a general finding from numerous meta-analyses. The average relative risk for a motor vehicle crash after cannabis use is consistently found to be around 2.0.
- The Health Effects of Cannabis and Cannabinoids: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (See Chapter 13)
Short-Term Risk: Acute Psychotic Episode
RiskModel: 'High' Risk: Weed/Data:PsychosisRisk
Content:
{{#ifexpr: {Method_IsEdible} = 1
|Based on your selections, your risk of experiencing a temporary but severe negative outcome (e.g., extreme paranoia, psychosis) from this edible is {{One_In_X|{{#expr: 0.005 * {Frequency_Psychosis_Multiplier} * {Potency_Psychosis_Multiplier} * {EdibleDose_AcuteRisk_Multiplier} }} }}.
|Based on your selections, your risk of experiencing a temporary psychotic episode from this use is {{One_In_X|{{#expr: 0.005 * {Frequency_Psychosis_Multiplier} * {Potency_Psychosis_Multiplier} }} }}.
}}
Calculation: The baseline risk of a first-time psychotic episode is low (~0.5%). This model multiplies that baseline by factors for frequency and potency. For edibles, the dose is the most critical factor and further multiplies the risk.
Long-Term Risk: Cannabis Use Disorder (Addiction)
RiskModel: 'High' Risk: Weed/Data:CUDRisk
Content:
Based on your age and frequency of use, your lifetime risk of developing Cannabis Use Disorder (addiction) is about {{One_In_X|{{#expr: 0.05 * {Frequency_CUD_Multiplier} * {Age_CUD_Multiplier} }} }}.
Calculation: This model starts with a baseline risk of 5% for a rare, adult user. This risk is then multiplied by factors for frequency of use and age of onset. The risk is highest for young, daily users.
Long-Term Risk: Chronic Bronchitis
RiskModel: 'High' Risk: Weed/Data:BronchitisRisk
Content:
{{#ifexpr: {Method_IsSmoked} = 1
|The lifetime risk of chronic bronchitis symptoms for a non-user is about '''1 in 12'''. Based on your frequency of smoking, your risk is '''{{One_In_X|{{#expr: 0.08 * {Bronchitis_Smoking_OR} }} }}'''.
|{{#ifexpr: {Method_IsVaped} = 1
|The lifetime risk of chronic bronchitis symptoms for a non-user is about '''1 in 12'''. Based on your frequency of vaping, your risk is '''{{One_In_X|{{#expr: 0.08 * {Bronchitis_Vaping_OR} }} }}'''.
|This risk is not associated with edibles.
}}}}
Calculation: This model starts with a baseline lifetime prevalence of chronic bronchitis symptoms in non-smokers/vapers of 8% (a 1 in 12.5 chance). It then applies the appropriate Odds Ratio (OR) multiplier based on your chosen method and frequency to calculate your absolute risk. While vaping is not risk-free, the risk of bronchitis is substantially lower than with smoking.
- Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Its Comorbidities | International Journal of COPD (See Table 1, for baseline non-smoker prevalence)
Long-Term Risk: Schizophrenia (Controversial Link)
RiskModel: 'High' Risk: Weed/Data:SchizophreniaRiskMin
Content:
''The Scientific Debate (Minimalist View):'' The link between cannabis and schizophrenia may be a correlation, not a cause. From this perspective, your risk is '''not significantly increased''' from the general population baseline of about a '''1 in 100''' lifetime risk.
RiskModel: 'High' Risk: Weed/Data:SchizophreniaRiskMax
Content:
''The Scientific Debate (Maximalist View):'' For individuals with a pre-existing vulnerability, cannabis use can act as a trigger. Based on your inputs, your lifetime risk could be elevated to {{One_In_X|{{#expr: 0.01 * {Frequency_Psychosis_Multiplier} * {Potency_Psychosis_Multiplier} }} }}.
Calculation: This presents two models to reflect the scientific debate. The Minimalist view holds that the risk is unchanged from the population baseline (1%). The Maximalist view calculates an elevated risk for vulnerable individuals, starting with the baseline risk and applying multipliers for high-frequency and high-potency use, which some studies suggest can increase the relative risk up to 5-fold.
- The Health Effects of Cannabis and Cannabinoids: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (See Chapter 12, Mental Health)
Initially created by Gemini.