Alcohol
Risks of Drinking Alcohol
Alcohol is one of the most widely consumed substances globally, and its consumption carries a range of risks, from immediate dangers like accidents to long-term chronic conditions. This page provides interactive tools to help you explore how different drinking patterns and personal factors influence your risk of chronic disease, the risk of becoming an alcoholic, and the risk of acute injury.
1. Chronic Disease Risks (Cancer, Liver Disease)
The long-term risk of diseases like cancer and cirrhosis is largely determined by the average amount of alcohol consumed over time. To accurately calculate these risks, we need to know your gender, as biological differences affect how the body processes alcohol.
Biological Gender
Average Weekly Alcohol Consumption
How many standard drinks do you typically consume per week? (A standard drink in the U.S. contains 0.6 ounces of pure alcohol, equivalent to a 12-ounce beer, a 5-ounce glass of wine, or a 1.5-ounce shot of liquor.)
Risk of Alcohol-Attributable Cancers
Alcohol increases the lifetime risk of several major cancers (including colorectal, liver, and throat cancers). This measure compares your estimated risk to that of a non-drinker.
Additional Lifetime Cases per 1,000 People:
Risk of Liver Cirrhosis
This measure shows how many times higher your risk of developing liver cirrhosis (severe scarring) is compared to someone who does not drink alcohol.
Risk Multiplier for Cirrhosis:
2. Risk of becoming an alcoholic
The term "alcoholic" is commonly used to describe someone with Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD), a chronic condition where a person can't control their drinking despite negative consequences. Personal factors, like genetics, play a large role in your baseline risk.
Family History
Do you have an immediate family member (parent or sibling) with a history of alcohol problems?
Lifetime Probability of becoming an alcoholic:
3. Acute Risks (Accidents and Injury)
Acute risks are short-term dangers that increase dramatically during or immediately after a drinking session, resulting in injuries, falls, or accidents.
Binge Drinking Frequency
How often do you engage in binge drinking (consuming 4 or more standard drinks for women, or 5 or more for men, in about 2 hours)?
Risk Multiplier for Acute Injury:
Risk Data Tables
Gender Baseline and Multipliers
| Gender | gender_baseline_cases_per_1000 | gender_multiplier_for_cirrhosis |
|---|---|---|
|
Male |
100 |
1.0 |
|
Female |
165 |
2.0 |
This table provides the baseline lifetime number of alcohol-attributable cancer cases per 1,000 people (up to age 80) for very light drinkers (<1 drink/week), and a multiplier for the cirrhosis model reflecting women's higher risk due to lower body water content and lower gastric alcohol dehydrogenase activity.
- CDC Alcohol Facts
- Global burden of alcohol-related cancer in 2020: a population-based study
- Gender Differences in Alcohol Metabolism and Liver Disease
AUD Family History Multiplier
| Family History | aud_risk_multiplier |
|---|---|
|
No |
1.0 |
|
Yes |
4.0 |
This table defines the multiplier for the risk of developing Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD). Studies consistently show that having an immediate family member with AUD increases an individual's risk significantly.
Acute Injury Risk Multiplier (Binge Drinking)
| Frequency | acute_injury_rr |
|---|---|
|
Never |
1.0 |
|
Rarely (1-2 times per month) |
3.0 |
|
Weekly (3-4 times per month) |
8.0 |
|
More than Weekly (5+ times per month) |
12.0 |
This table links the frequency of binge drinking to the increased risk multiplier for acute injury (e.g., falls, motor vehicle crashes, violence). The figures are adapted from studies on emergency department visits and injury mortality.
- Alcohol and the risk of injury: results from the WHO Collaborative Study on Alcohol and Accidents
- Binge Drinking
Cancer Risk Increase per Weekly Drinks
| Weekly_Drinks | weekly_dose_cancer_increase_per_1000 |
|---|---|
|
0 |
0.0 |
|
7 |
2.5 |
|
14 |
5.3 |
|
21 |
8.5 |
|
28 |
12.0 |
This table, and the Cirrhosis table below, represent the data points used to derive the dose-response curves implemented in the Risk Models.
Cirrhosis Risk Increase per Weekly Drinks
| Weekly_Drinks | weekly_dose_cirrhosis_rr |
|---|---|
|
0 |
1.0 |
|
7 |
1.2 |
|
14 |
1.8 |
|
21 |
3.5 |
|
28 |
6.0 |
|
35 |
10.0 |
This table, and the Cancer table above, represent the data points used to derive the dose-response curves implemented in the Risk Models.
Risk Models
AllCancerRiskIncrease
RiskModel: Alcohol:AllCancerRiskIncrease
Sorted Parameters:
base_risk_percent = {{#expr: {gender_baseline_cases_per_1000} / 10 round 1 }}
total_risk_increase = {{#expr: {weekly_drinks} * 0.4 round 0 }}
Content:
Based on consuming '''{weekly_drinks}''' standard drinks per week, your estimated lifetime risk is '''{total_risk_increase}''' additional cancer cases per 1,000 people compared to a non-drinker.
''The base lifetime risk for a very light drinker is '''{base_risk_percent}%'''. The calculated figure is derived from a simplified linear model (increase of approximately 0.4 cases per 1,000 people per weekly drink) based on meta-analysis data which show a monotonic, positive association between average consumption and the risk of alcohol-attributable cancers (e.g., breast, colorectal, liver, and throat cancers).''
* [https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/oash-alcohol-cancer-risk.pdf Alcohol and Cancer Risk 2024 - HHS.gov]
CirrhosisRR
RiskModel: Alcohol:CirrhosisRR
Sorted Parameters:
dose_factor = {{#expr: {weekly_drinks} / 7 }}
total_rr = {{#expr: 1 + (exp({dose_factor} * 0.45) * {gender_multiplier_for_cirrhosis}) round 1 }}
Content:
Your risk of developing liver cirrhosis is '''{total_rr} times higher''' than a person who does not drink.
''This model uses a simplified exponential curve ($RR = 1 + (\exp(0.45 \times (\text{weekly drinks}/7)) \times \text{Gender Multiplier})$) derived from meta-analytic studies which show the risk of cirrhosis increases dramatically (exponentially) with volume of consumption. The gender multiplier accounts for the higher risk for women at the same level of consumption.''
* [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6776700/ Alcohol consumption and risk of liver cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis]
AUDProbability
RiskModel: Alcohol:AUDProbability
Sorted Parameters:
baseline_aud_risk = 0.125
one_in_x = {{One_In_X|{total_probability}}}
total_probability = {{#expr: {baseline_aud_risk} * {aud_risk_multiplier} }}
probability_percent = {{#expr: {total_probability} * 100 round 1 }}
Content:
The estimated lifetime probability of you becoming an alcoholic (developing AUD) is '''{probability_percent}%''' (or {one_in_x}).
''The baseline lifetime risk for the general US population is estimated at 12.5%. This is adjusted up to 4 times higher if there is a known family history of alcohol problems.''
AcuteInjuryRR
RiskModel: Alcohol:AcuteInjuryRR
Sorted Parameters:
rr_display = {{#expr: {acute_injury_rr} round 1 }}
Content:
Your risk of being involved in an acute alcohol-related injury or accident is '''{rr_display} times higher''' than a non-drinker.
''The risk for acute injury is most strongly correlated with the frequency of binge drinking, where impairment levels dramatically increase the risk of accidental harm.''
Initially created by Gemini Flash 2.5.