Lyme Disease Risk/Data
Data and Parameters
| RegionLabel | Lyme_State_Incidence_per100k | Lyme_State_Incidence_Year |
|---|---|---|
|
Maine |
189.0 |
2023 |
|
Vermont |
173.7 |
2023 |
|
Rhode Island |
139.7 |
2023 |
|
Connecticut |
127.9 |
2023 |
|
Massachusetts |
108.7 |
2023 |
|
New Hampshire |
106.6 |
2023 |
|
Pennsylvania |
86.5 |
2023 |
|
New York |
53.5 |
2023 |
|
New Jersey |
46.6 |
2023 |
|
Maryland |
41.5 |
2023 |
|
Minnesota |
36.9 |
2023 |
|
Wisconsin |
33.4 |
2023 |
|
Virginia |
20.4 |
2023 |
|
Michigan |
10.0 |
2023 |
|
North Carolina |
3.1 |
2023 |
|
California |
0.8 |
2023 |
|
Texas |
0.3 |
2023 |
Annual reported Lyme incidence (cases per 100,000 population) for selected states, 2023. Choose the closest state to you; you can expand this table later with the full CSV.
- CDC: Lyme Disease Surveillance Data (overview, seasonality, 1996–2023) :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}
- CDC: 2023 Lyme incidence rates by state/locality (CSV) :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}
- CDC: Over 89,000 cases reported in 2023 (context & range) :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}
| SeasonMonthLabel | Lyme_Monthly_Share_Percent | Lyme_Monthly_Share_Notes |
|---|---|---|
|
January |
1 |
Low activity |
|
February |
1 |
Low activity |
|
March |
2 |
Increasing adult activity regionally |
|
April |
6 |
Spring increase |
|
May |
18 |
Peak begins (nymphs emerging) |
|
June |
22 |
Peak month in many regions |
|
July |
20 |
High |
|
August |
12 |
Elevated |
|
September |
8 |
Declining |
|
October |
6 |
Autumn adult activity |
|
November |
3 |
Low |
|
December |
1 |
Low |
Approximate month weights (sum = 100) that reflect CDC-described seasonality (peak in late spring–summer, esp. June–July). Useful for a monthly risk view; replace with a state-specific table if available.
- CDC: Lyme surveillance data (notes seasonality peaks) :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}
- Moore et al. 2014: meteorological influences on Lyme seasonality :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}
- (Optional alt source) Truveta 2025: ~63% of cases May–Aug; June ≈19% :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}
| RepellentOptionLabel | Lyme_Repellent_Reduction_Percent | Lyme_Repellent_Notes |
|---|---|---|
|
No skin repellent |
0 |
Baseline |
|
DEET or picaridin used correctly |
30 |
Conservative aggregate estimate for tick bite reduction |
Skin-applied repellent reduces tick bites; efficacy varies. Modeled here as a conservative 30% reduction applied multiplicatively with other measures.
- General CDC prevention guidance and literature reviews (see also clothing/permethrin evidence below).
| PermethrinOptionLabel | Lyme_Permethrin_Reduction_Percent | Lyme_Permethrin_Notes |
|---|---|---|
|
No permethrin-treated clothing |
0 |
Baseline |
|
Factory-impregnated/treated clothing |
58 |
~58% average reduction in tick bites over 2 years among outdoor workers |
Effectiveness of long-lasting permethrin-impregnated clothing in randomized trials.
- Mitchell et al. 2020: ~65% first year, ~50% second year; ~58% average :contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6}
- Sullivan et al. 2019: up to ~82% reduction reported :contentReference[oaicite:7]{index=7}
| TickCheckOptionLabel | Lyme_TickCheck_Reduction_Percent | Lyme_TickCheck_Notes |
|---|---|---|
|
No routine tick checks |
0 |
Baseline |
|
Daily tick check & remove within 24 hours |
80 |
Most transmission requires >24h attachment; early removal greatly reduces infection risk |
Early tick removal substantially lowers infection risk (transmission often requires ≥24–36 h). Modeled as an 80% reduction in infection given exposure.
- CDC: “If you remove a tick within 24 hours, you can greatly reduce your chances…” :contentReference[oaicite:8]{index=8}
- Lindsay et al. 2015 review: prevention methods incl. early removal :contentReference[oaicite:9]{index=9}
- FDA: transmission often requires 36–48 h :contentReference[oaicite:10]{index=10}
Risk Models
RiskModel: Lyme Disease Risk/Data:Lyme_Annual_Per_Person
Content:
Your '''Lyme disease''' risk is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:
({Lyme_State_Incidence_per100k} / 100000)
* (1 - ({Lyme_Repellent_Reduction_Percent} / 100))
* (1 - ({Lyme_Permethrin_Reduction_Percent} / 100))
* (1 - ({Lyme_TickCheck_Reduction_Percent} / 100))
}} }} per '''year'''.
''How this works'': We convert your selected state’s incidence (per 100,000) to an annual probability, then apply multiplicative reductions for your chosen precautions (repellent, permethrin-treated clothing, daily tick checks).
RiskModel: Lyme Disease Risk/Data:Lyme_Monthly_Per_Person
Content:
Your '''Lyme disease''' risk is {{One_In_X|{{#expr:
({Lyme_State_Incidence_per100k} / 100000)
* ({Lyme_Monthly_Share_Percent} / 100)
* (1 - ({Lyme_Repellent_Reduction_Percent} / 100))
* (1 - ({Lyme_Permethrin_Reduction_Percent} / 100))
* (1 - ({Lyme_TickCheck_Reduction_Percent} / 100))
}} }} per '''month'''.
''How this works'': Annual probability is apportioned to the selected month using the generic seasonality weights (replace with state-specific weights when available), then reduced by your chosen precautions.
Data and risk models are used on the main page.
Initially created by GPT-5 Thinking