Marijuana/Data
Baseline Factors
Method of Consumption
| Method_Description | Method_IsSmoked | Method_IsVaped | Method_IsEdible |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Smoking (joint, pipe, bong) |
1 |
0 |
0 |
|
Vaping (flower or oil) |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
Edibles (gummies, baked goods, drinks) |
0 |
0 |
1 |
This choice determines which risks are relevant and which follow-up question is displayed to the user.
Frequency of Consumption
| Frequency_Description | Frequency_CUD_Multiplier | Frequency_Psychosis_Multiplier | Bronchitis_Smoking_OR | Bronchitis_Vaping_OR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rarely (a few times per year) |
1 |
1 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|
Occasionally (1-3 times per month) |
2 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
|
Regularly (1-3 times per week) |
4 |
2 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
|
Daily or Near-Daily |
5.5 |
5 |
3.5 |
1.7 |
This data provides multipliers for long-term risks based on frequency of use. Daily use dramatically increases risk for Cannabis Use Disorder (CUD), psychosis, and chronic bronchitis symptoms.
- Adverse Health Effects of Marijuana Use | New England Journal of Medicine (CUD Risk)
- The contribution of cannabis use to variation in the incidence of psychotic disorder across Europe | The Lancet Psychiatry (Psychosis Risk)
- Effects of Marijuana Smoking on the Lung | Annals of the American Thoracic Society (Bronchitis Risk - Smoking)
- Association Between E-Cigarette Use and Chronic Respiratory Disease | American Journal of Preventive Medicine (Bronchitis Risk - Vaping vs. Smoking)
Your Age
| Age_Description | Age_CUD_Multiplier | Age_Cognition_Impact |
|---|---|---|
|
Under 18 |
4 |
High |
|
18-25 |
1.5 |
Moderate |
|
26+ |
1 |
Low |
This data provides a risk multiplier based on age, primarily for CUD and long-term cognitive effects. The adolescent brain (<18) is significantly more vulnerable to the effects of THC.
Potency / Dose Factors
| SmokingPotency_Description | Potency_Psychosis_Multiplier |
|---|---|
|
Standard Flower (~10-15% THC) |
1 |
|
High-Potency Flower / Concentrates (>20% THC) |
3 |
| VapingPotency_Description | Potency_Psychosis_Multiplier |
|---|---|
|
Vaping Standard Flower |
1 |
|
Vaping High-Potency Oil / Concentrates |
3 |
| EdibleDose_Description | Potency_Psychosis_Multiplier |
|---|---|
|
Low Dose (2.5mg - 5mg THC) |
1 |
|
Standard Dose (10mg THC) |
3 |
|
High Dose (25mg+ THC) |
10 |
These tables provide a risk multiplier for acute psychosis based on the potency of the product consumed. These tables all set the same variable, {Potency_Psychosis_Multiplier}, for use in the risk models.
- The contribution of cannabis use to variation in the incidence of psychotic disorder across Europe | The Lancet Psychiatry
- Cardiorespiratory and Other Health Effects of Marijuana Use: A Scientific Review for the Colorado General Assembly (See p. 55-57 for acute effects by dose)
Risk Models
RiskModel: Marijuana/Data:DrivingRisk Content: ===Short-Term Risk: Impaired Driving=== When driving under the influence of cannabis, your risk of a motor vehicle crash is approximately '''doubled'''.
Calculation: This is a general finding from numerous meta-analyses. The average relative risk for a motor vehicle crash after cannabis use is consistently found to be around 2.0.
- The Health Effects of Cannabis and Cannabinoids: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (See Chapter 13)
RiskModel: Marijuana/Data:PsychosisRisk
Content:
===Short-Term Risk: Acute Psychotic Episode===
Based on your selections, your risk of experiencing a temporary but severe negative outcome (e.g., extreme paranoia, psychosis) '''from one use''' is {{One_In_X|{{#expr: 0.005 * {Potency_Psychosis_Multiplier} }} }}.
Calculation: The baseline risk of a first-time psychotic episode from a single use is low (~0.5%). This risk is primarily a function of dose and individual vulnerability. This model multiplies that baseline by the risk factor for potency/dose, which is the strongest predictor of an acute negative reaction.
RiskModel: Marijuana/Data:CUDRisk
Content:
===Long-Term Risk: Moderate or Severe CUD (Addiction)===
Based on your age and frequency of use, your lifetime risk of developing a '''Moderate or Severe''' Cannabis Use Disorder (addiction) is about {{One_In_X|{{#expr: 0.02 * {Frequency_CUD_Multiplier} * {Age_CUD_Multiplier} }} }}.
Calculation: This model estimates the risk of a Moderate or Severe CUD (4 or more DSM-5 symptoms), which better reflects a life-impairing disorder. The model starts with a baseline risk of 2% (1 in 50) for a rare, adult user. This risk is then multiplied by factors for frequency of use and age of onset. The risk is highest for young, daily users.
- Is Marijuana Addictive? | NIDA
- 2020 National Survey on Drug Use and Health | SAMHSA (See Table B.4B for severity breakdown)
RiskModel: Marijuana/Data:BronchitisRisk
Content:
===Long-Term Risk: Chronic Bronchitis===
{{#ifexpr: {Method_IsSmoked} = 1
|The lifetime risk of chronic bronchitis symptoms for a non-user is about '''1 in 12'''. Based on your frequency of smoking, your risk is '''{{One_In_X|{{#expr: 0.08 * {Bronchitis_Smoking_OR} }} }}'''.
|{{#ifexpr: {Method_IsVaped} = 1
|The lifetime risk of chronic bronchitis symptoms for a non-user is about '''1 in 12'''. Based on your frequency of vaping, your risk is '''{{One_In_X|{{#expr: 0.08 * {Bronchitis_Vaping_OR} }} }}'''.
|This risk is not associated with edibles.
}}}}
Calculation: This model starts with a baseline lifetime prevalence of chronic bronchitis symptoms in non-smokers/vapers of 8% (a 1 in 12.5 chance). It then applies the appropriate Odds Ratio (OR) multiplier based on your chosen method and frequency to calculate your absolute risk.
- Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Its Comorbidities | International Journal of COPD (See Table 1, for baseline non-smoker prevalence)
RiskModel: Marijuana/Data:SchizophreniaRisk
Content:
{{#ifexpr: ({Frequency_Psychosis_Multiplier} * {Potency_Psychosis_Multiplier}) > 1|===Long-Term Risk: The Link to Schizophrenia===
The connection between cannabis use and schizophrenia is one of the most studied and controversial topics. Researchers agree there is a link, but disagree on whether cannabis can ''cause'' schizophrenia. We present both scientific views below.
'''Minimalist View:''' The link may be a correlation, not a cause. From this perspective, your risk is '''not significantly increased''' from the general population baseline of about a '''1 in 100''' lifetime risk.
'''Maximalist View:''' For individuals with a pre-existing vulnerability, cannabis use can act as a trigger. Based on your inputs, your lifetime risk could be elevated to '''{{One_In_X|{{#expr: 0.01 * {Frequency_Psychosis_Multiplier} * {Potency_Psychosis_Multiplier} }} }}'''.}}
Calculation: This presents two models to reflect the scientific debate. The Minimalist view holds that the risk is unchanged from the population baseline (1%). The Maximalist view calculates an elevated risk for vulnerable individuals, starting with the baseline risk and applying multipliers for high-frequency and high-potency use, which some studies suggest can increase the relative risk up to 5-fold.
- The Health Effects of Cannabis and Cannabinoids: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (See Chapter 12, Mental Health)
Initially created by Gemini.