PolarBear/Data
Exposure
| exposure_level | exposure_days | daily_encounter_rate | injury_given_encounter | fatality_given_injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 day |
1 |
0.000001 |
0.10 |
0.20 |
|
10 days |
10 |
0.000001 |
0.10 |
0.20 |
|
100 days |
100 |
0.000001 |
0.10 |
0.20 |
The daily_encounter_rate is a placeholder low value reflecting how rare polar bear–human dangerous encounters are. The injury_given_encounter is set to 0.10 (10 %) and fatality_given_injury to 0.20 (20 %) as rough illustrative rates — adjust with better data.
Location
| location | location_odds_ratio |
|---|---|
|
Arctic Alaska |
2.0 |
|
Canadian Arctic |
1.8 |
|
Greenland |
1.5 |
|
Svalbard (Norway) |
2.2 |
|
Other or Non-Polar Areas |
0.0 |
Odds ratios reflect relative risk compared to a baseline (e.g. Canadian Arctic as 1.0). You can calibrate based on known attack incidence by region.
Activity
| activity | activity_odds_ratio |
|---|---|
|
Camping / Field Work |
1.5 |
|
Traveling / Exploration |
1.2 |
|
Community Proximity / Near Settlement |
1.0 |
|
Low-Exposure Activities |
0.5 |
Higher exposure when you're outdoors in remote places; lower when near communities or in less exposed settings.
Season
| season | season_percentage_attacks | season_months |
|---|---|---|
|
Ice Season (Nov–May) |
60 |
7 |
|
Open Water / Ice Breakup (Jun–Oct) |
40 |
5 |
Polar bear attacks tend to cluster in periods when bears are on land or ice margins. The percentages are illustrative splits.
Precautionary Measures
| precautions | precautions_risk_reduction |
|---|---|
|
Armed Deterrents & Patrols |
0.10 |
|
Bear Deterrents (Flares, Noise) |
0.30 |
|
Secure Shelter / Enclosure |
0.50 |
|
No Precautions |
1.0 |
These reduce the effective risk by the stated multiplier (i.e. 0.10 means 90 % reduction).
RiskModel: PolarBear/Data:encounter_risk
Content:
Your chance of a dangerous polar bear encounter is
{{One_In_X|{{#expr:{daily_encounter_rate} * {exposure_days} * {location_odds_ratio} * {activity_odds_ratio} * ({season_percentage_attacks} / {season_months}) * {precautions_risk_reduction} }} }}
RiskModel: PolarBear/Data:injury_risk
Content:
Your chance of being injured by a polar bear is
{{One_In_X|{{#expr:{daily_encounter_rate} * {exposure_days} * {location_odds_ratio} * {activity_odds_ratio} * ({season_percentage_attacks} / {season_months}) * {precautions_risk_reduction} * {injury_given_encounter} }} }}
RiskModel: PolarBear/Data:fatality_risk
Content:
Your chance of being killed by a polar bear is
{{One_In_X|{{#expr:{daily_encounter_rate} * {exposure_days} * {location_odds_ratio} * {activity_odds_ratio} * ({season_percentage_attacks} / {season_months}) * {precautions_risk_reduction} * {injury_given_encounter} * {fatality_given_injury} }} }}
Created by AI