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Sick After Sex/Data

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Data and models for sexually transmitted infections

Sick After Sex/Data:STIStatePrevalence
State ChlamydiaPrevalence GonorrheaPrevalence SyphilisPrevalence HIVPrevalence HSV2Prevalence

Alabama

0.006511

0.002269

0.000286

0.000116

0.119

Alaska

0.006977

0.003109

0.000225

0.000116

0.119

Arizona

0.005525

0.001907

0.000241

0.000116

0.119

Arkansas

0.005796

0.001934

0.000292

0.000116

0.119

California

0.004911

0.001902

0.000163

0.000116

0.119

Colorado

0.004351

0.001287

0.000160

0.000116

0.119

Connecticut

0.003648

0.001133

0.000073

0.000116

0.119

Delaware

0.005527

0.001519

0.000174

0.000116

0.119

District of Columbia

0.012280

0.008533

0.003990

0.000116

0.119

Florida

0.004989

0.002067

0.000193

0.000116

0.119

Georgia

0.006464

0.002748

0.000200

0.000116

0.119

Hawaii

0.004356

0.001267

0.000127

0.000116

0.119

Idaho

0.002949

0.000396

0.000038

0.000116

0.119

Illinois

0.005577

0.002023

0.000116

0.000116

0.119

Indiana

0.004910

0.001440

0.000087

0.000116

0.119

Iowa

0.004268

0.001168

0.000103

0.000116

0.119

Kansas

0.004538

0.001440

0.000135

0.000116

0.119

Kentucky

0.003819

0.001344

0.000141

0.000116

0.119

Louisiana

0.007924

0.002884

0.000261

0.000116

0.119

Maine

0.002174

0.000444

0.000053

0.000116

0.119

Maryland

0.005798

0.002071

0.000142

0.000116

0.119

Massachusetts

0.004127

0.001398

0.000106

0.000116

0.119

Michigan

0.004295

0.001522

0.000084

0.000116

0.119

Minnesota

0.003795

0.001345

0.000087

0.000116

0.119

Mississippi

0.007009

0.002511

0.000301

0.000116

0.119

Missouri

0.004986

0.002019

0.000215

0.000116

0.119

Montana

0.003226

0.000677

0.000275

0.000116

0.119

Nebraska

0.004688

0.001155

0.000104

0.000116

0.119

Nevada

0.004936

0.002047

0.000227

0.000116

0.119

New Hampshire

0.001966

0.000419

0.000039

0.000116

0.119

New Jersey

0.003841

0.001091

0.000081

0.000116

0.119

New Mexico

0.005236

0.001690

0.000366

0.000116

0.119

New York

0.005584

0.002356

0.000148

0.000116

0.119

North Carolina

0.006079

0.002432

0.000199

0.000116

0.119

North Dakota

0.004364

0.001472

0.000124

0.000116

0.119

Ohio

0.004617

0.001680

0.000163

0.000116

0.119

Oklahoma

0.004713

0.001703

0.000277

0.000116

0.119

Oregon

0.003625

0.001172

0.000192

0.000116

0.119

Pennsylvania

0.004212

0.001447

0.000091

0.000116

0.119

Rhode Island

0.004808

0.001526

0.000082

0.000116

0.119

South Carolina

0.006121

0.002224

0.000173

0.000116

0.119

South Dakota

0.005316

0.002533

0.000734

0.000116

0.119

Tennessee

0.005174

0.001864

0.000148

0.000116

0.119

Texas

0.004919

0.001764

0.000150

0.000116

0.119

Utah

0.003220

0.000779

0.000097

0.000116

0.119

Vermont

0.002019

0.000340

0.000005

0.000116

0.119

Virginia

0.004728

0.001583

0.000107

0.000116

0.119

Washington

0.003544

0.001296

0.000213

0.000116

0.119

West Virginia

0.002490

0.000547

0.000109

0.000116

0.119

Wisconsin

0.004228

0.001185

0.000091

0.000116

0.119

Wyoming

0.003132

0.000423

0.000022

0.000116

0.119

Non-US/Worldwide

0.0325

0.01

0.005

0.0075

0.12

This table uses state-level prevalence probabilities for gonorrhea, syphilis, and chlamydia approximated from 2023 incidence rates (annual), As per-state HIV and HSV-2 data is not available, HIV data is used from 2023 diagnosed prevalence of a national 11.6% (end-of-year), and HSV-2 uses the national 11.9% prevalence datapoint. 

RiskModel: Sick After Sex/Data:PartnerPositiveRisk
Content: The chances a random partner from {State} has:

* '''Gonorrhea:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {GonorrheaPrevalence} }} }}
* '''Chlamydia:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {ChlamydiaPrevalence} }} }}
* '''Syphilis:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {SyphilisPrevalence} }} }}
* '''HIV:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {HIVPrevalence} }} }}
* '''Genital herpes (HSV-2):''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {HSV2Prevalence} }} }}



RiskModel: Sick After Sex/Data:PartnerPositiveActiveRisk
Content: The chances a random sexually active partner (someone who has had more than one sexual partner in the last year) from {State} has:

* '''Gonorrhea:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {GonorrheaPrevalence} / 0.2 }} }}
* '''Chlamydia:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {ChlamydiaPrevalence} / 0.2 }} }}
* '''Syphilis:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {SyphilisPrevalence} / 0.2 }} }}
* '''HIV:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {HIVPrevalence} / 0.2 }} }}
* '''Genital herpes (HSV-2):''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {HSV2Prevalence} / 0.2 }} }}


This risk model adjusts general population prevalence by dividing by 0.2 (20%), the approximate percentage of US adults aged 18-44 with more than one sexual partner in the past year, assuming nearly all STI infections occur in this higher-risk group. The definition aligns with CDC risk factors for multiple partners. Calculations: Adjusted prevalence = General prevalence / 0.2. Applied uniformly to all STIs for consistency, though HSV-2 has broader distribution. 

RiskModel: Sick After Sex/Data:PartnerInfectiousActiveRisk
Content: The chances a random sexually active partner (someone who has had more than one sexual partner in the last year) from {State} was infectious with:

* '''Gonorrhea:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({GonorrheaPrevalence} / 0.2) * 1 }} }}
* '''Chlamydia:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({ChlamydiaPrevalence} / 0.2) * 1 }} }}
* '''Syphilis:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({SyphilisPrevalence} / 0.2) * 0.52 }} }}
* '''HIV:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({HIVPrevalence} / 0.2) * 0.328 }} }}
* '''Genital herpes (HSV-2):''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({HSV2Prevalence} / 0.2) * 0.18 }} }}


This risk model multiplies the adjusted positivity probability for sexually active partners by the estimated probability of infectiousness given positivity for each STI. Gonorrhea and Chlamydia: 100% (untreated infections transmissible even asymptomatically). Syphilis: 52% (proportion of adult cases in primary/secondary + early latent stages: 106,580 infectious out of 205,371 total adult cases). HIV: 32.8% (1 - 67.2% viral suppression rate among diagnosed cases). HSV-2: 18% (genital shedding rate, primarily asymptomatic).

Sick After Sex/Data:TransmissionMultipliers
Activity ChlamydiaTransmissionMultiplier GonorrheaTransmissionMultiplier SyphilisTransmissionMultiplier HIVTransmissionMultiplier HSV2TransmissionMultiplier

Oral

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.01

0.1

Vaginal Intercourse

1

1

1

1

1

Anal Intercourse

2

2

1.5

10

1.2

This table provides per-act transmission multipliers relative to vaginal insertive baseline for each activity type. Oral uses averaged values (pharyngeal transmission lower); anal higher for mucosal exposure, especially HIV receptive.

Sick After Sex/Data:RoleMultipliers
Role ChlamydiaRoleMultiplier GonorrheaRoleMultiplier SyphilisRoleMultiplier HIVRoleMultiplier HSV2RoleMultiplier

Receptive

2.5

2.5

1.5

2

3

Insertive

1

1

1

1

1

Both

3.5

3.5

2.5

3

4

This table provides role-based multipliers (receptive vs. insertive) for penile-vaginal or penile-anal sex. Receptive risks higher due to mucosal exposure; "Both" adds the two.

Sick After Sex/Data:CondomMultipliers
CondomUse ChlamydiaCondomMultiplier GonorrheaCondomMultiplier SyphilisCondomMultiplier HIVCondomMultiplier HSV2CondomMultiplier

Yes

0.15

0.15

0.4

0.1

0.5

No

1

1

1

1

1

This table provides condom efficacy multipliers (reduction factor). Perfect use: 85% for gonorrhea/HIV, 60% for syphilis/HSV-2 (partial skin coverage).

Sick After Sex/Data:TreatmentMultipliers
Treatment ChlamydiaTreatmentMultiplier GonorrheaTreatmentMultiplier SyphilisTreatmentMultiplier HIVTreatmentMultiplier HSV2TreatmentMultiplier

Yes

1

1

1

0.01

0.5

No

1

1

1

1

1

This table provides partner treatment efficacy multipliers. HIV: 99% reduction (U=U); HSV-2: 50% (suppressive antivirals); bacterial STIs unaffected.

Sick After Sex/Data:DoxyPEPMultipliers
DoxyPEP ChlamydiaDoxyPEPMultiplier GonorrheaDoxyPEPMultiplier SyphilisDoxyPEPMultiplier HIVDoxyPEPMultiplier HSV2DoxyPEPMultiplier

Yes

0.25

0.25

0.35

1

1

No

1

1

1

1

1

This table provides DoxyPEP efficacy multipliers (65-75% for bacterial STIs). No effect on viral.

Sick After Sex/Data:CircumcisionMultipliers
Circumcision ChlamydiaCircumcisionMultiplier GonorrheaCircumcisionMultiplier SyphilisCircumcisionMultiplier HIVCircumcisionMultiplier HSV2CircumcisionMultiplier

Yes

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.4

0.75

No

1

1

1

1

1

This table provides circumcision efficacy multipliers (for insertive role only).

Combined Scenario Multipliers

This table consolidates the multipliers for activity, role, and circumcision into single-scenario factors.

Sick After Sex/Data:ScenarioMultipliers
ScenarioDescription ChlamydiaScenarioMultiplier GonorrheaScenarioMultiplier SyphilisScenarioMultiplier HIVScenarioMultiplier HSV2ScenarioMultiplier

My circumcised penis went into my partner's vagina

0.75

0.75

0.8

0.4

0.75

My uncircumcised penis went into my partner's vagina

1

1

1

1

1

My circumcised penis went into my partner's anus

1.5

1.5

1.2

4.0

0.9

My uncircumcised penis went into my partner's anus

2

2

1.5

10

1.2

My partner's penis went into my vagina

2.5

2.5

1.5

2

3

My partner's penis went into my anus

5

5

2.25

20

3.6

None of the above

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.01

0.1

Final Transmission Risk Model

This final model combines the risk of encountering an infectious partner with all the situational multipliers to estimate the per-act transmission probability for each STI. 

RiskModel: Sick After Sex/Data:FinalTransmissionRisk
Content: 
Based on your selections, the estimated per-act chance of transmission is:

* '''Chlamydia:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({ChlamydiaPrevalence} / 0.2) * 1 * {ChlamydiaScenarioMultiplier} * {ChlamydiaCondomMultiplier} * {ChlamydiaTreatmentMultiplier} * {ChlamydiaDoxyPEPMultiplier} }} }}
* '''Gonorrhea:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({GonorrheaPrevalence} / 0.2) * 1 * {GonorrheaScenarioMultiplier} * {GonorrheaCondomMultiplier} * {GonorrheaTreatmentMultiplier}* {GonorrheaDoxyPEPMultiplier}  }} }}
* '''Syphilis:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({SyphilisPrevalence} / 0.2) * 0.52 * {SyphilisScenarioMultiplier} * {SyphilisCondomMultiplier} * {SyphilisTreatmentMultiplier} * {SyphilisDoxyPEPMultiplier} }} }}
* '''HIV:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({HIVPrevalence} / 0.2) * 0.328 * {HIVScenarioMultiplier} * {HIVCondomMultiplier} * {HIVTreatmentMultiplier} * {HIVDoxyPEPMultiplier} }} }}
* '''Genital Herpes (HSV-2):''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({HSV2Prevalence} / 0.2) * 0.18 * {HSV2ScenarioMultiplier} * {HSV2CondomMultiplier} * {HSV2TreatmentMultiplier} * {HSV2DoxyPEPMultiplier} }} }}


Data and risk models are used on the main page.

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