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Sick After Sex/Data

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Data and models for sexually transmitted infections

Sick After Sex/Data:STIStatePrevalence
State ChlamydiaPrevalence GonorrheaPrevalence SyphilisPrevalence HIVPrevalence HSV2Prevalence

Alabama

0.006924

0.002269

0.001264

0.00331

0.12

Alaska

0.008431

0.003109

0.000995

0.00114

0.12

Arizona

0.005187

0.001907

0.001065

0.00264

0.12

Arkansas

0.006323

0.001934

0.001291

0.00280

0.12

California

0.004944

0.001902

0.000721

0.00377

0.12

Colorado

0.004273

0.001287

0.000707

0.00222

0.12

Connecticut

0.003926

0.001133

0.000323

0.00327

0.12

Delaware

0.005479

0.001519

0.000769

0.00417

0.12

District of Columbia

0.010530

0.008533

0.001763

0.01908

0.12

Florida

0.005232

0.002067

0.000853

0.00577

0.12

Georgia

0.006093

0.002748

0.000884

0.00579

0.12

Hawaii

0.004958

0.001267

0.000562

0.00225

0.12

Idaho

0.002816

0.000396

0.000168

0.00069

0.12

Illinois

0.005273

0.002023

0.000513

0.00315

0.12

Indiana

0.004732

0.001440

0.000385

0.00228

0.12

Iowa

0.004459

0.001168

0.000455

0.00111

0.12

Kansas

0.004664

0.001440

0.000597

0.00128

0.12

Kentucky

0.004677

0.001344

0.000623

0.00224

0.12

Louisiana

0.007559

0.002884

0.001154

0.00506

0.12

Maine

0.002492

0.000444

0.000234

0.00103

0.12

Maryland

0.005856

0.002071

0.000628

0.00529

0.12

Massachusetts

0.004245

0.001398

0.000469

0.00273

0.12

Michigan

0.004693

0.001522

0.000371

0.00217

0.12

Minnesota

0.004650

0.001345

0.000385

0.00153

0.12

Mississippi

0.008451

0.002511

0.001331

0.00411

0.12

Missouri

0.005510

0.002019

0.000951

0.00235

0.12

Montana

0.003565

0.000677

0.001216

0.00070

0.12

Nebraska

0.004523

0.001155

0.000460

0.00121

0.12

Nevada

0.005128

0.002047

0.001003

0.00433

0.12

New Hampshire

0.002194

0.000419

0.000172

0.00096

0.12

New Jersey

0.003923

0.001091

0.000358

0.00419

0.12

New Mexico

0.006691

0.001690

0.001618

0.00211

0.12

New York

0.005952

0.002356

0.000654

0.00523

0.12

North Carolina

0.006473

0.002432

0.000880

0.00330

0.12

North Dakota

0.005917

0.001472

0.000548

0.00084

0.12

Ohio

0.005322

0.001680

0.000721

0.00242

0.12

Oklahoma

0.005740

0.001703

0.001225

0.00212

0.12

Oregon

0.004453

0.001172

0.000848

0.00194

0.12

Pennsylvania

0.004838

0.001447

0.000402

0.00294

0.12

Rhode Island

0.004443

0.001526

0.000362

0.00220

0.12

South Carolina

0.006852

0.002224

0.000765

0.00370

0.12

South Dakota

0.007204

0.002533

0.003246

0.00098

0.12

Tennessee

0.006198

0.001864

0.000654

0.00337

0.12

Texas

0.005274

0.001764

0.000663

0.00349

0.12

Utah

0.003058

0.000779

0.000429

0.00116

0.12

Vermont

0.002302

0.000340

0.000022

0.00085

0.12

Virginia

0.005117

0.001583

0.000473

0.00298

0.12

Washington

0.004229

0.001296

0.000942

0.00211

0.12

West Virginia

0.002987

0.000547

0.000482

0.00155

0.12

Wisconsin

0.004518

0.001185

0.000402

0.00109

0.12

Wyoming

0.002870

0.000423

0.000097

0.00079

0.12

Non-US/Worldwide

0.0325

0.01

0.005

0.0075

0.12

This table combines state-level prevalence probabilities for gonorrhea, syphilis, HIV, and HSV-2. Gonorrhea and syphilis values are approximated from 2023 incidence rates (annual), HIV from 2023 diagnosed prevalence (end-of-year), and HSV-2 uses the national 12% prevalence estimate for ages 15-49 as state-level data is unavailable. District of Columbia values are included based on reported data. 

  RiskModel: Sick After Sex/Data:PartnerPositiveRisk
    Content: The chances a random partner from {State} has:

* '''Gonorrhea:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {GonorrheaPrevalence} }} }}
* '''Chlamydia:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {ChlamydiaPrevalence} }} }}
* '''Syphilis:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {SyphilisPrevalence} }} }}
* '''HIV:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {HIVPrevalence} }} }}
* '''Genital herpes (HSV-2):''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {HSV2Prevalence} }} }}

  RiskModel: Sick After Sex/Data:PartnerPositiveActiveRisk
    Content: The chances a random sexually active partner (someone who has had more than one sexual partner in the last year) from {State} has:

* '''Gonorrhea:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {GonorrheaPrevalence} / 0.2 }} }}
* '''Chlamydia:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {ChlamydiaPrevalence} / 0.2 }} }}
* '''Syphilis:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {SyphilisPrevalence} / 0.2 }} }}
* '''HIV:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {HIVPrevalence} / 0.2 }} }}
* '''Genital herpes (HSV-2):''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: {HSV2Prevalence} / 0.2 }} }}

This risk model adjusts general population prevalence by dividing by 0.2 (20%), the approximate percentage of US adults aged 18-44 with more than one sexual partner in the past year, assuming nearly all STI infections occur in this higher-risk group. The definition aligns with CDC risk factors for multiple partners. Calculations: Adjusted prevalence = General prevalence / 0.2. Applied uniformly to all STIs for consistency, though HSV-2 has broader distribution. 

  RiskModel: Sick After Sex/Data:PartnerInfectiousActiveRisk
    Content: The chances a random sexually active partner (someone who has had more than one sexual partner in the last year) from {State} was infectious with:

* '''Gonorrhea:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({GonorrheaPrevalence} / 0.2) * 1 }} }}
* '''Chlamydia:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({ChlamydiaPrevalence} / 0.2) * 1 }} }}
* '''Syphilis:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({SyphilisPrevalence} / 0.2) * 0.52 }} }}
* '''HIV:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({HIVPrevalence} / 0.2) * 0.328 }} }}
* '''Genital herpes (HSV-2):''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({HSV2Prevalence} / 0.2) * 0.18 }} }}

This risk model multiplies the adjusted positivity probability for sexually active partners by the estimated probability of infectiousness given positivity for each STI. Gonorrhea and Chlamydia: 100% (untreated infections transmissible even asymptomatically). Syphilis: 52% (proportion of adult cases in primary/secondary + early latent stages: 106,580 infectious out of 205,371 total adult cases). HIV: 32.8% (1 - 67.2% viral suppression rate among diagnosed cases). HSV-2: 18% (genital shedding rate, primarily asymptomatic).

Sick After Sex/Data:TransmissionMultipliers
Activity ChlamydiaTransmissionMultiplier GonorrheaTransmissionMultiplier SyphilisTransmissionMultiplier HIVTransmissionMultiplier HSV2TransmissionMultiplier

Oral

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.01

0.1

Vaginal Intercourse

1

1

1

1

1

Anal Intercourse

2

2

1.5

10

1.2

This table provides per-act transmission multipliers relative to vaginal insertive baseline for each activity type. Oral uses averaged values (pharyngeal transmission lower); anal higher for mucosal exposure, especially HIV receptive.

Sick After Sex/Data:RoleMultipliers
Role ChlamydiaRoleMultiplier GonorrheaRoleMultiplier SyphilisRoleMultiplier HIVRoleMultiplier HSV2RoleMultiplier

Receptive

2.5

2.5

1.5

2

3

Insertive

1

1

1

1

1

Both

3.5

3.5

2.5

3

4

This table provides role-based multipliers (receptive vs. insertive) for penile-vaginal or penile-anal sex. Receptive risks higher due to mucosal exposure; "Both" adds the two.

Sick After Sex/Data:CondomMultipliers
CondomUse ChlamydiaCondomMultiplier GonorrheaCondomMultiplier SyphilisCondomMultiplier HIVCondomMultiplier HSV2CondomMultiplier

Yes

0.15

0.15

0.4

0.1

0.5

No

1

1

1

1

1

This table provides condom efficacy multipliers (reduction factor). Perfect use: 85% for gonorrhea/HIV, 60% for syphilis/HSV-2 (partial skin coverage).

Sick After Sex/Data:TreatmentMultipliers
Treatment ChlamydiaTreatmentMultiplier GonorrheaTreatmentMultiplier SyphilisTreatmentMultiplier HIVTreatmentMultiplier HSV2TreatmentMultiplier

Yes

1

1

1

0.01

0.5

No

1

1

1

1

1

This table provides partner treatment efficacy multipliers. HIV: 99% reduction (U=U); HSV-2: 50% (suppressive antivirals); bacterial STIs unaffected.

Sick After Sex/Data:DoxyPEPMultipliers
DoxyPEP ChlamydiaDoxyPEPMultiplier GonorrheaDoxyPEPMultiplier SyphilisDoxyPEPMultiplier HIVDoxyPEPMultiplier HSV2DoxyPEPMultiplier

Yes

0.25

0.25

0.35

1

1

No

1

1

1

1

1

This table provides DoxyPEP efficacy multipliers (65-75% for bacterial STIs). No effect on viral.

Sick After Sex/Data:CircumcisionMultipliers
Circumcision ChlamydiaCircumcisionMultiplier GonorrheaCircumcisionMultiplier SyphilisCircumcisionMultiplier HIVCircumcisionMultiplier HSV2CircumcisionMultiplier

Yes

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.4

0.75

No

1

1

1

1

1

This table provides circumcision efficacy multipliers (for insertive role only).

Combined Scenario Multipliers

This table consolidates the multipliers for activity, role, and circumcision into single-scenario factors.

Sick After Sex/Data:ScenarioMultipliers
ScenarioDescription ChlamydiaScenarioMultiplier GonorrheaScenarioMultiplier SyphilisScenarioMultiplier HIVScenarioMultiplier HSV2ScenarioMultiplier

My circumcised penis went into my partner's vagina

0.75

0.75

0.8

0.4

0.75

My uncircumcised penis went into my partner's vagina

1

1

1

1

1

My circumcised penis went into my partner's anus

1.5

1.5

1.2

4.0

0.9

My uncircumcised penis went into my partner's anus

2

2

1.5

10

1.2

My partner's penis went into my vagina

2.5

2.5

1.5

2

3

My partner's penis went into my anus

5

5

2.25

20

3.6

None of the above

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.01

0.1

Final Transmission Risk Model

This final model combines the risk of encountering an infectious partner with all the situational multipliers to estimate the per-act transmission probability for each STI. 

  RiskModel: Sick After Sex/Data:FinalTransmissionRisk
    Content: 
Based on your selections, the estimated per-act chance of transmission is:

* '''Chlamydia:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({ChlamydiaPrevalence} / 0.2) * 1 * {ChlamydiaScenarioMultiplier} * {ChlamydiaCondomMultiplier} * {ChlamydiaTreatmentMultiplier} * {ChlamydiaDoxyPEPMultiplier} }} }}
* '''Gonorrhea:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({GonorrheaPrevalence} / 0.2) * 1 * {GonorrheaScenarioMultiplier} * {GonorrheaCondomMultiplier} * {GonorrheaTreatmentMultiplier}* {GonorrheaDoxyPEPMultiplier}  }} }}
* '''Syphilis:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({SyphilisPrevalence} / 0.2) * 0.52 * {SyphilisScenarioMultiplier} * {SyphilisCondomMultiplier} * {SyphilisTreatmentMultiplier} * {SyphilisDoxyPEPMultiplier} }} }}
* '''HIV:''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({HIVPrevalence} / 0.2) * 0.328 * {HIVScenarioMultiplier} * {HIVCondomMultiplier} * {HIVTreatmentMultiplier} * {HIVDoxyPEPMultiplier} }} }}
* '''Genital Herpes (HSV-2):''' {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ({HSV2Prevalence} / 0.2) * 0.18 * {HSV2ScenarioMultiplier} * {HSV2CondomMultiplier} * {HSV2TreatmentMultiplier} * {HSV2DoxyPEPMultiplier} }} }}

Initially created by Grok 4 and Gemini.

Data and risk models are used on the main page.

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