|
|
| '''Exposure''' | | Can't delete sorry |
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| <riskdata table="exposure" columns="exposure_level|exposure_days|daily_encounter_rate|injury_given_encounter|fatality_given_injury">
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| 1 day|1|0.000001|0.10|0.20
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| 10 days|10|0.000001|0.10|0.20
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| 100 days|100|0.000001|0.10|0.20
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| </riskdata>
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| The daily_encounter_rate is a placeholder low value reflecting how rare polar bear–human dangerous encounters are.
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| The injury_given_encounter is set to 0.10 (10 %) and fatality_given_injury to 0.20 (20 %) as rough illustrative rates — adjust with better data.
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| | |
| '''Location'''
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| <riskdata table="location" columns="location|location_odds_ratio">
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| Arctic Alaska|2.0
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| Canadian Arctic|1.8
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| Greenland|1.5
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| Svalbard (Norway)|2.2
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| Other or Non-Polar Areas|0.0
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| </riskdata>
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| Odds ratios reflect relative risk compared to a baseline (e.g. Canadian Arctic as 1.0). You can calibrate based on known attack incidence by region.
| |
| | |
| '''Activity'''
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| <riskdata table="activity" columns="activity|activity_odds_ratio">
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| Camping / Field Work|1.5
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| Traveling / Exploration|1.2
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| Community Proximity / Near Settlement|1.0
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| Low-Exposure Activities|0.5
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| </riskdata>
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| Higher exposure when you're outdoors in remote places; lower when near communities or in less exposed settings.
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| | |
| '''Season'''
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| | |
| <riskdata table="season" columns="season|season_percentage_attacks|season_months">
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| Ice Season (Nov–May)|60|7
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| Open Water / Ice Breakup (Jun–Oct)|40|5
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| </riskdata>
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| | |
| Polar bear attacks tend to cluster in periods when bears are on land or ice margins. The percentages are illustrative splits.
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| | |
| '''Precautionary Measures'''
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| | |
| <riskdata table="precautions" columns="precautions|precautions_risk_reduction">
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| Armed Deterrents & Patrols|0.10
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| Bear Deterrents (Flares, Noise)|0.30
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| Secure Shelter / Enclosure|0.50
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| No Precautions|1.0
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| </riskdata>
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| | |
| These reduce the effective risk by the stated multiplier (i.e. 0.10 means 90 % reduction).
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| | |
| <!-- === Risk Models === -->
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| | |
| <RiskModel name="encounter_risk">
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| Your chance of a dangerous polar bear encounter is
| |
| {{One_In_X|{{#expr:{daily_encounter_rate} * {exposure_days} * {location_odds_ratio} * {activity_odds_ratio} * ({season_percentage_attacks} / {season_months}) * {precautions_risk_reduction} }} }}
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| </RiskModel>
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| | |
| <RiskModel name="injury_risk">
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| Your chance of being injured by a polar bear is
| |
| {{One_In_X|{{#expr:{daily_encounter_rate} * {exposure_days} * {location_odds_ratio} * {activity_odds_ratio} * ({season_percentage_attacks} / {season_months}) * {precautions_risk_reduction} * {injury_given_encounter} }} }}
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| </RiskModel>
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| | |
| <RiskModel name="fatality_risk">
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| Your chance of being killed by a polar bear is
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| {{One_In_X|{{#expr:{daily_encounter_rate} * {exposure_days} * {location_odds_ratio} * {activity_odds_ratio} * ({season_percentage_attacks} / {season_months}) * {precautions_risk_reduction} * {injury_given_encounter} * {fatality_given_injury} }} }}
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| </RiskModel>
| |
