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| | == Deer–Vehicle Collision Risk Calculator == |
| | Deer–vehicle collisions (DVCs) are a tangible roadway risk that varies by **state**, **season**, and **time of day**. Insurance-claim statistics indicate a national annual risk near '''1 in 128''' for hitting an animal (most commonly deer) in {{lc:{{CURRENTYEAR}}}}, with the highest risks in certain Appalachian and Upper Midwest states. Autumn evenings (especially **October–November**) are peak season. |
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| | This calculator lets you estimate your risk at three levels: |
| | * '''Annual''' (per driver per year, by state) |
| | * '''Monthly''' (seasonality by month) |
| | * '''Trip-level''' (for a specific drive, by miles, road context, time of day, and corridor mitigation) |
| | |
| | === Your Inputs === |
| | Choose conditions below. (Defaults reflect typical U.S. conditions and 14,000 miles/year.) |
| | |
| | <RiskParameter>distance_miles=14000</RiskParameter> |
| | |
| | Select your '''state''' (annual odds per driver): |
| | <DropDown title="State / Region" table="DVC_Annual_Odds_By_State_2024_2025" default-index=0></DropDown> |
| | |
| | Seasonality strongly concentrates risk in autumn; pick a '''month''' to weight annual odds: |
| | <DropDown title="State / Region" table="DVC_Annual_Odds_By_State_2022_2023" ...> |
| | |
| | Driving in darkness sharply raises DVC risk: |
| | <DropDown title="Time of Day" table="DVC_TimeOfDay_Options" default-index=0></DropDown> |
| | |
| | Pick your '''road context''' (per-mile baseline differs by rural/urban): |
| | <DropDown title="Road Context" table="DVC_PerMile_RoadContext" default-index=0></DropDown> |
| | |
| | Choose a '''trip length''': |
| | <DropDown title="Trip Distance" table="DVC_Trip_Length_Options" default-index=3></DropDown> |
| | |
| | If your corridor has wildlife fencing/crossings, apply a reduction: |
| | <DropDown title="Mitigation on Corridor" table="DVC_Mitigation_Options" default-index=0></DropDown> |
| | |
| | === Your Results === |
| | <RiskDisplay model="DVC_Annual_Per_Driver"></RiskDisplay> |
| | |
| | <RiskDisplay model="DVC_Monthly_Per_Driver"></RiskDisplay> |
| | ''Note: Monthly risk scales your selected state’s annual odds by the selected month’s share of annual deer crashes (using a well-documented Wisconsin distribution as a general proxy).'' |
| | |
| | <RiskDisplay model="DVC_TripLevel_Per_Drive"></RiskDisplay> |
| | |
| | ---- |
| | |
| | See [[Deer–Vehicle_Collisions/Data|the data page]] for sources and details of each calculation. |
| | |
| | Generated by [https://openai.com/ ChatGPT-5] |
| | |
| | |
| | == Data and Parameters == |
| | |
| | <riskdata table="DVC_Annual_Odds_By_State_2024_2025" columns="RegionLabel|DVC_State_Odds_1_in|DVC_State_Odds_DataPeriod"> |
| | United States (average)|1 in 139|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | West Virginia|1 in 40|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | Montana|1 in 53|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | Wisconsin|1 in 60|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | Pennsylvania|1 in 59|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | Michigan|1 in 61|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | North Dakota|1 in 82|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | South Dakota|1 in 69|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | Virginia|1 in 78|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | Missouri|1 in 97|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | Texas|1 in 222|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | Nevada|1 in 770|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | Hawaii|1 in 710|Jul 2024–Jun 2025 |
| | </riskdata> |
| | ''Annual per-driver odds of an animal-collision claim (deer are the top animal), period shown per row.'' Representative states are listed to keep the UI compact; the model will still work nationally using the U.S. average when a state isn’t listed. |
| | * [https://newsroom.statefarm.com/new-state-farm-data-reveals-fewer-animal-collisions-but-autumn-months-remain-most-dangerous/ State Farm newsroom (Sep 16, 2025): new animal-collision odds incl. 1 in 139 U.S. average for 2024–2025] |
| | * [https://www.statefarm.com/simple-insights/auto-and-vehicles/how-likely-are-you-to-have-an-animal-collision State Farm explainer: national odds and autumn peak] |
| | * [https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-deer-vehicle-collisions Insurance Information Institute: Deer-vehicle collisions (context, confirms State Farm counts/periods)] |
| | |
| | <riskdata table="DVC_Monthly_Wisconsin_2023" columns="SeasonMonthLabel|DVC_WI_Monthly_Count_2023|DVC_WI_Monthly_Context"> |
| | January|1033|Wisconsin police-reported deer crashes (calendar year 2023) |
| | February|881|Wisconsin police-reported deer crashes (calendar year 2023) |
| | March|904|Wisconsin police-reported deer crashes (calendar year 2023) |
| | April|857|Wisconsin police-reported deer crashes (calendar year 2023) |
| | May|1575|Wisconsin police-reported deer crashes (calendar year 2023) |
| | June|1543|Wisconsin police-reported deer crashes (calendar year 2023) |
| | July|828|Wisconsin police-reported deer crashes (calendar year 2023) |
| | August|738|Wisconsin police-reported deer crashes (calendar year 2023) |
| | September|925|Wisconsin police-reported deer crashes (calendar year 2023) |
| | October|2343|Wisconsin police-reported deer crashes (calendar year 2023) |
| | November|3218|Wisconsin police-reported deer crashes (calendar year 2023) |
| | December|1308|Wisconsin police-reported deer crashes (calendar year 2023) |
| | </riskdata> |
| | ''Monthly distribution (counts) for Wisconsin, 2023.'' Used to weight annual odds into a month-specific probability (November and October are the peak months; a May–June secondary bump is also visible). |
| | * [https://wisconsindot.gov/Documents/safety/education/crash-data/2023-deer-fact-sheet.pdf Wisconsin DOT: 2023 Deer-Related Crashes Fact Sheet (monthly counts chart)] |
| | |
| | <riskdata table="DVC_TimeOfDay_Options" columns="TimeOfDayOptionLabel|TimeOfDay_Relative_Multiplier|TimeOfDay_Notes"> |
| | Daylight (baseline)|1|Baseline risk level |
| | Night (sunset→sunrise)|3|Most DVCs occur after dark; conservative whole-night factor |
| | Peak window (~2 hours after sunset)|14|≈14× vs. two hours before sunset (research finding) |
| | </riskdata> |
| | ''Relative multipliers for time of day.'' The ~14× factor applies to the short peak window; using 3× for general night driving is a more conservative whole-trip assumption. |
| | * [https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/11/02/deer-vehicle-dst/ Univ. of Washington summary of Current Biology study (1994–2021 dataset; 14× finding)] |
| | * [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36327981/ Current Biology (2022): deer–vehicle collisions and clock shifts] |
| | |
| | <riskdata table="DVC_PerMile_RoadContext" columns="RoadContextLabel|DVC_Rate_per100M_VehicleMiles|DVC_Rate_Context"> |
| | Overall (Kentucky baseline)|7|Police-reported DVCs per 100M VMT (1987–1989) |
| | Rural roads|11|Police-reported DVCs per 100M VMT (1987–1989) |
| | Urban roads|2|Police-reported DVCs per 100M VMT (1987–1989) |
| | </riskdata> |
| | ''Per-mile baseline rates by road context.'' Used for trip-level risk; modern/local conditions vary, so treat as illustrative until calibrated with newer local VMT-normalized data. |
| | * [https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00015469.htm CDC MMWR (1991): Injuries from Motor-Vehicle Collisions with Deer — Kentucky, 1987–1989] |
| | |
| | <riskdata table="DVC_Trip_Length_Options" columns="TripLengthLabel|Trip_Miles"> |
| | Short errand (5 mi)|5 |
| | Commute (10 mi)|10 |
| | Suburban cross-town (20 mi)|20 |
| | Highway leg (50 mi)|50 |
| | Road trip segment (100 mi)|100 |
| | </riskdata> |
| | ''Trip distance options (miles).'' Scales per-mile risk to a single drive. |
| | |
| | <riskdata table="DVC_Mitigation_Options" columns="MitigationLabel|DVC_Reduction_Percent|DVC_Mitigation_Context"> |
| | None / no special mitigation|0|Reference |
| | Wildlife fencing + crossing structures|80|Synthesis; ungulates incl. deer |
| | Wildlife fencing (typical median)|54|Global meta-analysis median |
| | All mitigation types (overall average)|40|Global meta-analysis average |
| | </riskdata> |
| | ''Observed reductions from corridor mitigations.'' Apply as a percent reduction to expected collisions on the mitigated segment. |
| | * [https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/research/safety/08034/08.cfm FHWA (2008): Wildlife–Vehicle Collision Reduction Study] |
| | * [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5117745/ PLoS One (2016): Meta-analysis of road-kill mitigation effectiveness] |
| | * [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320716300350 Biological Conservation (2016): Fencing & crossing structures effectiveness] |
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| | |
| | == Risk Models == |
| | |
| | <riskmodel name="DVC_Annual_Per_Driver"> |
| | Your '''deer–vehicle collision''' risk is {{One_In_X|{{#expr: 1 / {DVC_State_Odds_1_in} }} }} per '''year'''. |
| | |
| | ''What this shows'': Per-driver annual odds from insurance claims for the selected state/region (or U.S. average). |
| | </riskmodel> |
| | |
| | <riskmodel name="DVC_Monthly_Per_Driver"> |
| | Your '''deer–vehicle collision''' risk is {{One_In_X|{{#expr: |
| | (1 / {DVC_State_Odds_1_in}) * ({DVC_WI_Monthly_Count_2023} / (1033+881+904+857+1575+1543+828+738+925+2343+3218+1308)) |
| | }} }} per '''month'''. |
| | |
| | ''How computed'': Annual probability (''1 ÷ {DVC_State_Odds_1_in}'') scaled by the chosen month’s share of annual deer crashes using Wisconsin-2023 distribution as a general U.S. proxy. |
| | </riskmodel> |
| | |
| | <riskmodel name="DVC_TripLevel_Per_Drive"> |
| | Your '''deer–vehicle collision''' risk is {{One_In_X|{{#expr: |
| | ({DVC_Rate_per100M_VehicleMiles} / 100000000) |
| | * {Trip_Miles} |
| | * (({DVC_WI_Monthly_Count_2023} * 12) / (1033+881+904+857+1575+1543+828+738+925+2343+3218+1308)) |
| | * {TimeOfDay_Relative_Multiplier} |
| | * (1 - ({DVC_Reduction_Percent} / 100)) |
| | }} }} per '''drive'''. |
| | |
| | ''Explanation'': |
| | # '''Per-mile baseline''' from selected road context: ''{DVC_Rate_per100M_VehicleMiles} ÷ 100,000,000''. |
| | # Scale by '''trip length''' (''× {Trip_Miles}''). |
| | # Apply '''seasonal factor''': month’s share relative to an average month (''× ({DVC_WI_Monthly_Count_2023} × 12 ÷ annual sum)''). |
| | # Apply '''time-of-day multiplier''' (''× {TimeOfDay_Relative_Multiplier}''). |
| | # Apply any '''mitigation reduction''' (''× (1 − {DVC_Reduction_Percent}/100)''). |
| | ''Caveat'': Baseline rates are from Kentucky (historic) and seasonality from Wisconsin; adjust with local VMT-normalized data when available. |
| | </riskmodel> |
| | |
| | ---- |
| | |
| | Data and risk models are used on the [[Deer–Vehicle_Collisions|main page]]. |
| | |
| | ''Initially created by GPT-5 Thinking'' |
