|
|
| '''Exposure'''
| |
|
| |
|
| <riskdata table="exposure" columns="exposure_level|exposure_days|daily_encounter_rate|injury_given_encounter|fatality_given_injury">
| |
| 1 day|1|0.000001|0.10|0.20
| |
| 10 days|10|0.000001|0.10|0.20
| |
| 100 days|100|0.000001|0.10|0.20
| |
| </riskdata>
| |
|
| |
| The daily_encounter_rate is a placeholder low value reflecting how rare polar bear–human dangerous encounters are.
| |
| The injury_given_encounter is set to 0.10 (10 %) and fatality_given_injury to 0.20 (20 %) as rough illustrative rates — adjust with better data.
| |
|
| |
| '''Location'''
| |
|
| |
| <riskdata table="location" columns="location|location_odds_ratio">
| |
| Arctic Alaska|2.0
| |
| Canadian Arctic|1.8
| |
| Greenland|1.5
| |
| Svalbard (Norway)|2.2
| |
| Other or Non-Polar Areas|0.0
| |
| </riskdata>
| |
|
| |
| Odds ratios reflect relative risk compared to a baseline (e.g. Canadian Arctic as 1.0). You can calibrate based on known attack incidence by region.
| |
|
| |
| '''Activity'''
| |
|
| |
| <riskdata table="activity" columns="activity|activity_odds_ratio">
| |
| Camping / Field Work|1.5
| |
| Traveling / Exploration|1.2
| |
| Community Proximity / Near Settlement|1.0
| |
| Low-Exposure Activities|0.5
| |
| </riskdata>
| |
|
| |
| Higher exposure when you're outdoors in remote places; lower when near communities or in less exposed settings.
| |
|
| |
| '''Season'''
| |
|
| |
| <riskdata table="season" columns="season|season_percentage_attacks|season_months">
| |
| Ice Season (Nov–May)|60|7
| |
| Open Water / Ice Breakup (Jun–Oct)|40|5
| |
| </riskdata>
| |
|
| |
| Polar bear attacks tend to cluster in periods when bears are on land or ice margins. The percentages are illustrative splits.
| |
|
| |
| '''Precautionary Measures'''
| |
|
| |
| <riskdata table="precautions" columns="precautions|precautions_risk_reduction">
| |
| Armed Deterrents & Patrols|0.10
| |
| Bear Deterrents (Flares, Noise)|0.30
| |
| Secure Shelter / Enclosure|0.50
| |
| No Precautions|1.0
| |
| </riskdata>
| |
|
| |
| These reduce the effective risk by the stated multiplier (i.e. 0.10 means 90 % reduction).
| |
|
| |
| <!-- === Risk Models === -->
| |
|
| |
| <RiskModel name="encounter_risk">
| |
| Your chance of a dangerous polar bear encounter is
| |
| {{One_In_X|{{#expr:{daily_encounter_rate} * {exposure_days} * {location_odds_ratio} * {activity_odds_ratio} * ({season_percentage_attacks} / {season_months}) * {precautions_risk_reduction} }} }}
| |
| </RiskModel>
| |
|
| |
| <RiskModel name="injury_risk">
| |
| Your chance of being injured by a polar bear is
| |
| {{One_In_X|{{#expr:{daily_encounter_rate} * {exposure_days} * {location_odds_ratio} * {activity_odds_ratio} * ({season_percentage_attacks} / {season_months}) * {precautions_risk_reduction} * {injury_given_encounter} }} }}
| |
| </RiskModel>
| |
|
| |
| <RiskModel name="fatality_risk">
| |
| Your chance of being killed by a polar bear is
| |
| {{One_In_X|{{#expr:{daily_encounter_rate} * {exposure_days} * {location_odds_ratio} * {activity_odds_ratio} * ({season_percentage_attacks} / {season_months}) * {precautions_risk_reduction} * {injury_given_encounter} * {fatality_given_injury} }} }}
| |
| </RiskModel>
| |
