Unexpected ER Visit
Ever wonder about the chances of an accident or sudden illness sending you to the emergency room? While it's impossible to predict the future, we can look at data to get a good idea of the risk. An "unexpected" visit is one you don't see coming—not for a regular check-up or a long-term condition, but for things like a broken bone, a sudden high fever, or a car accident.
This page helps you explore that risk. Use the interactive options below to see a personalized estimate based on millions of real-life hospital records from across the United States.
Your Personal Factors
Young children and older people are more likely to end up in the ER:
What is your age group?
Your Estimated Risk
Data Sources
All baseline data is sourced from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 2019 emergency department survey.
Baseline risk based on sex
| SexFactor_Description | SexFactor_AnnualRatePer100 |
|---|---|
|
Overall |
46.6 |
|
Female |
49.8 |
|
Male |
43.3 |
This data represents the annual rate of emergency department visits per 100 persons in the United States, based on 2019 data. Overall is just the average of Male and Female.
- National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2019 Emergency Department Summary Tables (See Table 2)
Baseline risk based on age
| AgeFactor_Description | AgeFactor_AnnualRatePer100 |
|---|---|
|
Under 1 year |
123.5 |
|
1-4 years |
68.8 |
|
5-9 years |
38.0 |
|
10-14 years |
32.5 |
|
15-19 years |
49.0 |
|
20-24 years |
46.0 |
|
25-29 years |
47.5 |
|
30-34 years |
46.5 |
|
35-39 years |
45.5 |
|
40-44 years |
44.5 |
|
45-49 years |
42.5 |
|
50-54 years |
41.5 |
|
55-59 years |
40.5 |
|
60-64 years |
39.5 |
|
65-69 years |
44.5 |
|
70-74 years |
41.5 |
|
75-79 years |
62.0 |
|
80-84 years |
68.0 |
|
85 years and over |
75.0 |
This data represents the annual rate of emergency department visits per 100 persons in the United States, based on 2019 data. Note: The source data groups some age ranges (e.g., 5–14 years, 15–24 years); the same rate has been applied to each 5-year increment within those broader groups.
- National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2019 Emergency Department Summary Tables (See Table 2)
Risk Models
RiskModel: Unexpected ER Visit:AnnualRisk
Content:
Your estimated '''annual''' risk of an unexpected emergency room visit is {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ( {AgeFactor_AnnualRatePer100} / 100 ) * ( {SexFactor_AnnualRatePer100} / 46.6 ) * 0.83 }} }} per year.
Calculation: The baseline risk is determined by the annual rate for your selected age group ({AgeFactor_Description}), adjusted for your selected sex ({SexFactor_Description}). The result is then multiplied by 0.83 to better represent the risk for a typical individual, by factoring out the disproportionate impact of high-frequency ER users (the 5% of patients who account for 21% of visits).
RiskModel: Unexpected ER Visit:DailyRisk
Content:
Your estimated '''daily''' risk of an unexpected emergency room visit is {{One_In_X|{{#expr: (( {AgeFactor_AnnualRatePer100} / 100 ) * ( {SexFactor_AnnualRatePer100} / 46.6 ) * 0.83) / 365.25 }} }} per day.
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While many ER visits are for unpredictable events, about half are linked to preventable causes. Specific actions like [[Driving|wearing a seatbelt]] or getting a yearly flu shot will lower the risk you end up in the ER tomorrow.
Calculation: This is the adjusted annual risk probability divided by 365.25 (the average number of days in a year).