Unexpected ER Visit/Data
This subpage contains the data used in the risk model for the main Unexpected ER Visit page. All baseline data is sourced from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 2019 emergency department survey.
Baseline risk based on sex
| SexFactor_Description | SexFactor_AnnualRatePer100 |
|---|---|
|
Overall |
46.6 |
|
Female |
49.8 |
|
Male |
43.3 |
This data represents the annual rate of emergency department visits per 100 persons in the United States, based on 2019 data. Overall is just the average of Male and Female.
- National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2019 Emergency Department Summary Tables (See Table 2)
Baseline risk based on age
| AgeFactor_Description | AgeFactor_AnnualRatePer100 |
|---|---|
|
Under 1 year |
123.5 |
|
1-4 years |
68.8 |
|
5-9 years |
38.0 |
|
10-14 years |
32.5 |
|
15-19 years |
49.0 |
|
20-24 years |
46.0 |
|
25-29 years |
47.5 |
|
30-34 years |
46.5 |
|
35-39 years |
45.5 |
|
40-44 years |
44.5 |
|
45-49 years |
42.5 |
|
50-54 years |
41.5 |
|
55-59 years |
40.5 |
|
60-64 years |
39.5 |
|
65-69 years |
44.5 |
|
70-74 years |
41.5 |
|
75-79 years |
62.0 |
|
80-84 years |
68.0 |
|
85 years and over |
75.0 |
This data represents the annual rate of emergency department visits per 100 persons in the United States, based on 2019 data. Note: The source data groups some age ranges (e.g., 5–14 years, 15–24 years); the same rate has been applied to each 5-year increment within those broader groups.
- National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2019 Emergency Department Summary Tables (See Table 2)
Risk Models
RiskModel: Unexpected ER Visit/Data:AnnualRisk
Content:
Your estimated '''annual''' risk of an unexpected emergency room visit is {{One_In_X|{{#expr: ( {AgeFactor_AnnualRatePer100} / 100 ) * ( {SexFactor_AnnualRatePer100} / 46.6 ) * 0.83 }} }} per year.
Calculation: The baseline risk is determined by the annual rate for your selected age group ({AgeFactor_Description}), adjusted for your selected sex ({SexFactor_Description}). The result is then multiplied by 0.83 to better represent the risk for a typical individual, by factoring out the disproportionate impact of high-frequency ER users (the 5% of patients who account for 21% of visits).
RiskModel: Unexpected ER Visit/Data:DailyRisk
Content:
Your estimated '''daily''' risk of an unexpected emergency room visit is {{One_In_X|{{#expr: (( {AgeFactor_AnnualRatePer100} / 100 ) * ( {SexFactor_AnnualRatePer100} / 46.6 ) * 0.83) / 365.25 }} }} per day.
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While many ER visits are for unpredictable events, about half are linked to preventable causes. Specific actions like [[Driving|wearing a seatbelt]] or getting a yearly flu shot will lower the risk you end up in the ER tomorrow.
Calculation: This is the adjusted annual risk probability divided by 365.25 (the average number of days in a year).